Bull markets cure all discontent; the bodies of shorts pave the way for the rise. Today’s market has given those stubbornly holding short positions a lesson—BTC suddenly broke through 110,000 with a strong bullish candle, currently reported at 110,962, and the total liquidation data across the network soared to 320 million dollars, of which 80% are short positions.
1. Technical analysis: The Bollinger Bands have been exploded, and the MACD holds hidden secrets.
From this hot K-line chart, several key signals can be observed:
Bollinger Bands' opening: The upper band has been pushed to 109,000, but the price has directly surged above 110,000, indicating this is not an ordinary breakout, but a 'FOMO market'—institutions that missed out fear losing and are chasing the price blindly.
MACD underwater golden cross: Although the DIF and DEA are still below the zero axis at -798 and -480, the green bars suddenly narrowed, resembling the pattern before the surge in January 2024—at that time, it was also a golden cross in the MACD negative zone, followed by BTC rising from 40,000 to 60,000 in a month.
The Great Sage's view:
Such a sharp rise typically has two outcomes—either it’s a 'news-driven pump' like last night’s Wall Street rumors about BlackRock increasing its BTC spot ETF position, or there truly are big whales buying up. I checked the on-chain data, and a mysterious address bought 3,800 BTC worth 420 million dollars within two hours, likely indicating institutional activity.
2. What to do about shorts? Three survival positions.
If you unfortunate opened a short position, you must remain calm:
"Cut losses or hold on?": Check your positions! If leverage exceeds 20 times, it's advisable to stop loss directly. Refer to how many people held on before the 2023 LUNA collapse, and ended up with nothing.
Hedging method: Immediately buy an equivalent amount of BTC spot to hedge, or open a call option at 112,000 dollars, which is equivalent to insuring the short position.
Focus on key levels: If the closing price breaks below the previous high support of 109,500 within an hour, it may be a false breakout; if it stabilizes at 110,000, quickly pray to avoid being caught off guard.
Case study:
Last December, when BTC surged to 40,000, an old brother in our community held a 5x short position stubbornly and ended up getting liquidated due to a series of short squeezes. Later, he learned his lesson—now he sets a 5% stop loss every time he opens a position, and instead made back his losses in six months.
3. Market outlook: Is this a bull retracement or a bull takeoff?
Market sentiment has gone mad now, but be aware of several risks:
Federal Reserve turns hawkish: There is non-farm data tonight, and if employment exceeds expectations, it may suppress risk assets, with BTC possibly plummeting 5%.
Exchange withdrawals surge: In the past 24 hours, OKX net withdrawals reached 18,000 BTC, be careful of large holders dumping.
"Bull markets often have sharp drops, bear markets often have rebounds"—do you think this is a real breakout or a 'trap'? Share your positions in the comments, and the post with the highest likes will receive (The Great Sage's Survival Manual for Contracts)!
I just saw Binance's contract funding rate spike to 0.05%, indicating that bulls are going all in... I've seen this script before, it was the same before the 49,000-dollar surge in April 2021.
Remember! The market is not wrong, we are! Only those who do not understand the market well cannot make money from it. I am the Great Sage, serving only the ambitious madmen who want to turn their fortunes around.