The potential impact of tonight's non-farm payroll data on the market, five scenario forecasts:
1. Non-farm payrolls > 145,000 (Probability: 5%)
Impact: This will trigger a reassessment of the trajectory of U.S. economic growth. Such strong data may stem from lowered tariff expectations and the pass-through of tariff costs to consumers exceeding expectations.
Market reaction: U.S. Treasury yields are expected to soar, and in the short term (over a few trading days), increased volatility may suppress stock returns, but ultimately it is still positive. S&P 500 forecast: Up 1%-1.5%.
2. Non-farm payrolls between 125,000 - 145,000 (Probability: 25%)
Impact: Positive for U.S. stocks, reflecting that the impact of the trade war is lower than expected. Although the one-day market reaction strength ranks second, it is seen as the best medium-term result, with growth restarting but inflation pressures remaining moderate.
Market reaction: Moderate one-day reaction strength, best medium-term outlook. S&P 500 forecast: Up 0.75%-1.25%.
3. Non-farm payrolls between 105,000 - 125,000 (Probability: 40%)
Impact: In line with market and JPMorgan benchmark predictions (>100,000 maintains stock market buying interest). The data is positive, but if it approaches the lower limit (105,000), the impact on market sentiment may be limited, especially considering Powell's remarks that the impact of tariffs will be reflected in the data for June-August.
Market reaction: Maintains buying interest, but the impact is moderate as it approaches the lower limit. S&P 500 forecast: Up 0.5%-1%.
4. Non-farm payrolls between 85,000 - 105,000 (Probability: 25%)
Impact: The first scenario where the outcome does not meet expectations. The outcome judgment depends on the timing of trade agreements.
If a significant agreement is reached before the data is released, the impact may be negligible; if the data approaches the lower limit and agreement details are insufficient or not reached, the market may revisit recession/stagflation narratives.
Market reaction: Downside risk, severity influenced by trade progress. S&P 500 forecast: Down 0.25%-1.5%.