From the perspective of Bitcoin in the past two days, the market’s upward capital pressure is a bit overwhelming. Now we are just waiting for the tariff crisis to be resolved, and the market will experience a surge in emotional growth. This time's push to a new high is definitely achievable, as long as Trump, Musk, or the conflicts between Israel and Iran do not escalate. Bitcoin successfully broke through 110,000 yesterday when Trump and Musk seemed to have reconciled a bit.
Is there a high probability that it will continue to fall? Yes, there is a high probability.
But I am not looking at the short-term market trends but rather the future trends in a bull market. I believe there is still considerable room for growth. For some promising altcoins, I will continue to hold and not sell in this situation. If there is a project that I don't have much faith in, then I will definitely consider switching to something else or simply selling it. However, as of now, none of the altcoins I hold have made me want to throw them away.
The market is not doing well right now, and many people are feeling anxious with the coins they hold, even considering giving up. My suggestion is: if you feel this way, don't get tangled up. Just directly swap those coins that make you uneasy and lose sleep for Bitcoin. When the market is slightly down for a while, what everyone feels most secure and trusts the most is still Bitcoin. The ones that truly make people anxious and on edge are mostly those altcoins. So, big drops during the bull market cycle are quite common and not a new thing. If every big drop makes you unable to eat or sleep because of the altcoin crash, it’s better to be honest and stable, buy more Bitcoin, and not make life harder for yourself.
This year, in this cycle, it is not hard to notice that each rebound high for altcoins is getting lower. While Bitcoin can fluctuate around the 100,000 to 110,000 range, altcoins are continuously hitting new lows. Currently, the rhythm of most altcoins is to first plunge by 90%, then rebound by 100% from the lowest point, making it seem like they have doubled. This gives the impression that the altcoin season is coming. However, when you look at the monthly chart, they are still far from their historical highs. By the time you jump in, they may turn around and give you a 50% cut. When Bitcoin drops by 1%, altcoins can drop by 20%!
When Bitcoin consolidates at a high level and sets a new high, you will find that many altcoins are priced lower than Bitcoin was at 60,000. If Bitcoin consolidates at a high for another six months, there will likely be a portion of altcoins that will collapse and be delisted.
Of course, there will be a few strong altcoins with applications that can break new highs, such as those mentioned by Crab Boss during the outbreak of war between Iran and Israel: Sui, Pepe, Aave, Uni. These projects with actual consensus and revenue can adapt to the current environment and continuously break new highs along with the overall market sentiment. You can see that the trends in the past two days have been quite strong. This is also what Crab Boss mentioned earlier; for some promising altcoins, I will continue to hold and not sell in this situation.
Tonight at 8 PM, the beautiful bill will have its final vote in the House of Representatives. If it passes, it will be sent directly to the president for signing and will take effect. The main content of this plan is to adjust the budget cuts, reducing many expenditures (including government subsidies for electric vehicles), but at the same time, it raises the government's debt ceiling. Next, we will issue national debt to expand the debt scale.
The impact on the cryptocurrency market mainly comes from the issuance of national debt, which will increase US Treasury yields. This may lead to more liquidity flowing into government bonds to seek risk-free returns. The scale of this bond issuance may be around 1.5-2 trillion, which may temporarily cause a 'blood extraction effect' on the cryptocurrency market, but Bitcoin may not necessarily be affected. After all, the market is free, and these expectations may have already been reflected in the prices. Moreover, there are expectations of interest rate cuts in the future.
We just need to hold onto the cash we have.
There have been no obvious negative macroeconomic factors in the past two days. The geopolitical and tariff issues have not yet impacted the market. The focus of the market is when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. After the ADP data surprised last night, expectations began to arise that the Fed might cut rates early to stimulate the economy. However, currently, the probability of a rate cut in July is still relatively low. The Fed is likely to cut rates in September. Next, we can pay attention to the non-farm payroll data released tonight, which will affect short-term market sentiment and price trends.
Brothers, come to the chat room quickly: