Ethereum's recent surge has attracted much attention, but behind it lies a series of bearish signals and market crises, forming a 'high place is cold' panic pattern. Here is an in-depth analysis from four major areas: on-chain data, technical indicators, capital momentum, and policy aspects:
🔻 1. Macroeconomic policies fluctuate, risks are rising.
The Federal Reserve's interest rates are ambiguous: Officials have not completely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in July, but the market has observed multiple instances of 'hinting → returning to hawkish', making short-term liquidity outlook unstable and increasing pressure on risk assets.
Topics around semiconductors and tech stocks dominate, with accelerated capital rotation. Cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are short-term impacted by stock market sentiment, making them susceptible to sharp fluctuations or corrections.
🔻 2. Competition intensifies, capital is squeezed.
Solana enters the ETF market, marking a shift in crypto fund allocation away from only large coins. Ethereum faces direct competition, and capital allocation is trending towards diversification or even withdrawal.
The U.S. government promotes digital asset reserves including Ethereum, which, while a positive signal, presents complex policies that may bring uncertain pressure to market sentiment, leading trading strategies to become more cautious.
🔻 3. On-chain whale movements reveal potential crises.
Recently, there has been an outflow of whale capital. Some observers have noted major Ethereum holders initiating transfers and phased exits before the end of the month. Although specific amounts have not been disclosed, it can be seen as a watershed signal for the market at high levels.
ETF capital has not clearly reversed but the wait-and-see sentiment is warming: The mainstream ETH ETF has only seen slight fluctuations, lacking aggressive buying, indicating that the pace of capital movement may have turned into a speculative nature.
🔻 4. Technical indicators show warning signs, a pullback could strike at any time.
The recent high around 2900 has been tested multiple times without success, forming a pressure zone. Price has met resistance and retreated, which could evolve into a typical reversal pattern of 'not breaking the top → rapid decline'.
Short-term technical indicators are unfavorable for bulls: MACD has a death cross, RSI is neutral to weak, and Bollinger Bands are showing a converging trend. The market has entered a low volatility period before adjustment, hiding the risk of explosive declines.
The final frenzy, or the beginning of a collapse!?
After reaching a new range at a high, market enthusiasm has not continued. Instead, capital has receded, indicators have reversed, and policy clouds loom. Under the overlap of multiple negative factors, the current rise seems more like a trap for bulls rather than a healthy upward trend. If key support is lost in the short term, it could trigger deep corrections, leading to chain liquidations and panic selling.
