July has historically been a strong month for BTC, with 7 out of the past 10 years recording increases, averaging a rise of 9.1%. If this seasonal inertia continues, this year is expected to challenge the target of $116,000.

Currently, although the price faces some resistance during the upward process and is caught in a consolidation range, there are no obvious signs of divergence in the technical structure. Recklessly shorting at this time carries significant risk; a more reasonable strategy is to wait for the consolidation to end and observe whether a top divergence forms during a secondary price surge before considering the next steps.

ETH has not 'stopped rising'; the structure is actually quite stable.

Some are bearish on ETH, believing the upward momentum has exhausted, but from a technical perspective, this judgment is premature.

  • The large bullish candlestick on May 8 broke through a key resistance zone, which has now turned into strong support according to the 'acute conversion principle'. After ETH retraced to this level on June 22, it stopped falling and rebounded, validating its effectiveness.

  • This round of market movement has risen from **$1,400 to $2,800**, with the pullback only touching $2,100, not even reaching the Fibonacci 50% retracement level, indicating that the bulls are in control of the pace.

If using a military metaphor, the current trend is like the bulls have already penetrated deep into enemy territory, while the bears attempt to counterattack but are unable; a new round of upward attempts may follow.

The strategy remains unchanged: do not chase highs, do not cut losses, just wait for the trend.

Ultimately, the core question now is not 'has it risen', but rather - can you correctly identify the big direction?

I believe the trend is still on the 'up' side.
When the market rallies, a group of people shouts 'the bull market is here', a typical case of emotional trading.

I choose to continue observing; let the market fly for a while, and wait until a true 'deep squat retracement' before considering entry.
In this round of market movement, I won't be swing trading; I'll focus on trends + cycles, waiting for the interest rate cut in September, which will be the core phase of the stronger main upward wave.

The allocation direction is also very simple: only look at BTC, ETH, SOL, prioritize stability, and don't be flashy.

Hotspot tracking | Three most discussed altcoins.

[1] $FUN: The name is fun, and the trend is ridiculous.

Today's market can be described as a hybrid of NFT artistic styles + meme candlestick patterns.
MACD looks like fading ink, and KDJ is stuck at the 'I won't move' point... then suddenly the price skyrockets like a surge.
The SEC just finished pursuing Pump.fun, has FUN coin also 'overdone the happiness'?
Friendly reminder: after FUN, just run, don't let it get out of control.

[2] $MOODENG: Korean systems are coming, Upbit is heating up.

This morning, the Korean exchange suddenly announced the launch of MOODENG, which surged over 50% immediately after opening.
Although this coin has not yet been listed on Binance, it has appeared in the Binance Alpha pre-listing pool.
Upbit + Alpha, there’s likely a story behind it. Will it become the next hot speculation target?

[3] $PENGU: The 'Fat Penguin' boosted by ETF narratives.

The current trend resembles the sharp rise before **$PEPE**, rebounding strongly after a pullback to Fibonacci 0.5, with an increase of over 50% this week.
The price is currently stuck at the upper range of 0.015~0.017, with a clear ascending triangle pattern. Once it breaks out with volume, it might 'take off'.

Even more outrageous: Cboe BZX has submitted an application to the SEC for a PENGU ETF.
Are meme coins starting to rush into ETFs? Perhaps it will become the second meme project to be officially reviewed after DOGE.

Risk control reminder: with non-farm payrolls and holidays approaching, be sure to pay attention to volatility.

Now is not the time to chase highs for swing trading; the key is to wait for the trend to confirm after the consolidation before entering.
In terms of capital allocation, prefer mainline assets such as BTC, ETH, SOL, while combining the emotional trading rhythm of hot coins for light-position attempts.
Don't be greedy; as long as the trend is there, profits won't be small.