Dogecoin ($DOGE, market cap $24.2 billion) faces a key turning point in July, potentially surging 58% to $0.266 or crashing to $0.13, with $0.17 being the pivotal point. Pressure comes from two aspects:
1) Musk and Trump publicly clashing, intensified scrutiny of Tesla subsidies threatening market stability; similar incidents have caused DOGE to drop 13% in a day;
2) This week, 95 million DOGE (approximately $14.7 million) will be unlocked, which is a small proportion but may trigger selling, with the price possibly dropping to $0.1569. If whales step in, it could stabilize or even rebound.
Dogecoin price broke through $0.1650, initiating a new round of upward pressure as follows:
Currently, Dogecoin price is above $0.174 and the 100-hour moving average, showing strong upward momentum. The target price may reach $0.18, or even $0.2.
Price trend analysis: Dogecoin price started to rise from a low of $0.1565, breaking through the resistance levels of $0.1600 and $0.1620, paving the way for further increases. Currently, Dogecoin is in a consolidation phase, with the price slightly retreating, sitting below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from $0.1565 to $0.17.
Short-term outlook:
If the price can hold the support level of $0.172, it may continue to challenge $0.178 or even $0.18. In the longer term, if it breaks through $0.18, the price may surge towards $0.2, or even $0.212.
If the price fails to break through $0.178, a pullback may occur. The initial support level is at $0.172, followed by $0.165. If it breaks below the support, the price may further decline to $0.15.
Technical indicators: Hourly MACD: Currently in the bullish zone, but momentum has weakened, need to pay attention to subsequent changes. Hourly RSI: Relative Strength Index is above 50, indicating that there is still potential for price increase.
Key levels: This wave of Dogecoin can be considered a short-term rebound recovery, but don’t get too excited; $0.18 is still a key threshold. If it cannot break through, it can easily return to the fluctuation range, or even drop again. This stage is more suitable for light positions, quick entry and exit, and not recommended to go all in. However, if it stabilizes at $0.18 or even rushes to $0.20, then this round of increase should be taken seriously.
