Non-farm data to ignite the market tonight: interest rate cut expectations swinging, liquidity risks hiding dangers
Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. June non-farm payroll data will be released, which could be a key turning point in determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction in July. The market expects only 110,000 new jobs, far below the previous value of 139,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3%. Last night’s “little non-farm” ADP data unexpectedly cooled off, briefly warming interest rate cut expectations, but most institutions still bet that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points no earlier than September.
Liquidity trap warning: extreme volatility may lead to a crash
If tonight's data deviates significantly from expectations, high beta assets such as U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin are bound to experience wild fluctuations. More dangerously, U.S. stocks will close early at 1 PM Eastern Time, coupled with a sharp drop in market liquidity over the weekend, any sudden volatility may be amplified due to a lack of buy orders. If you haven’t set stop-loss and take-profit levels in advance, your risk exposure could spiral out of control during the vacuum period.
Strategic response: defense over offense
If the data disappoints (below 110,000), U.S. Treasury yields may decline or push risk assets to rebound in the short term, and BTC may surge; however, if employment data is strong, the market may quickly reverse, increasing the risk of a crash. In the current environment, strictly adhering to risk control discipline is more important than chasing profits—locking in gains and compressing losses is the safest strategy for the weekend.
Remember: the market is never short of opportunities, but extreme volatility during liquidity exhaustion can destroy positions. Planning ahead is always wiser than passively enduring risks.
