Deep潮 TechFlow News, on July 3rd, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that Bitcoin recently surged from $105,200 to $109,500, primarily benefiting from a significant increase in the activity of the derivatives market: the open interest (OI) at major futures exchanges surged by 10%, totaling $3.2 billion, indicating that a large amount of new capital is flowing into the market. This growth was mainly driven by long positions, indicating that investors are optimistic about Bitcoin's future price increase, and market momentum is beginning to recover.
Meanwhile, the latest 'small non-farm' ADP employment data unexpectedly declined (-33,000), triggering further warming of market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the probability of a rate cut in July rising to 27.4%. More importantly, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will take action in September, with a 25 basis point rate cut probability as high as 64%-72%, and even a possibility of a 50 basis point cut cannot be ruled out.
Despite a loosening macro atmosphere, Bitcoin's current trend remains relatively volatile. The put/call ratio in the options market has risen to 0.72, with $104,000 becoming a key support level, while $114,000 constitutes strong short-term resistance. On-chain capital flows remain stable, indicating that the main players are still waiting for the non-farm and initial jobless claims data later this week. From a structural perspective, the market is grappling with two paths: if employment continues to be weak, a September rate cut could trigger a new round of upward momentum for Bitcoin; conversely, if non-farm data is unexpectedly strong, the $104,000 level may be breached, triggering a technical correction.
Overall, under the resonance of macro policy shifts and technical signals, Bitcoin is in a sensitive window period full of directional choices and potential volatility amplification.
