Analyst Anna brings you deep insights, peeling back the surface of the trade agreement to see the undercurrents of capital flow:
When the trillion-dollar trade flow is forcibly redirected by policy, beneath the market's giant waves lies the surfboard of the prophet.
Trump has made it official on social media: the US and Vietnam have finalized a deal.
The core is just two points:
The US charges a 'toll': everything sold from Vietnam to the US incurs a 20% 'import tax' (tariff). If it is discovered that Vietnam is simply 'flipping' goods from other places (like a certain eastern superpower) by just relabeling them before selling them to the US, then the tax skyrockets to 40%! Is that harsh?
Vietnam 'opens its doors': in exchange, Vietnam completely 'waives the entrance fee'—all American goods entering Vietnam will have zero tariffs!
Anna's views and insights:
What appears to be 'fair trade' actually hides secrets and has far-reaching impacts:
'Made in Vietnam' costs are soaring, who will pay? Nike, Lululemon, Gap, and other fast-fashion giants opening large factories in Vietnam are the first to bear the brunt. With a 20% tax, companies either swallow the cost themselves (profits plummet), pass it on to American consumers (prices rise), or... accelerate the transfer of production lines (seeking the next 'low-cost valley'?). Today's stock price increase is a short-term emotional response to the 'shoe dropping', but the long-term cost pressure is real. Think back to the sweater war; how many new Southeast Asian tycoons were born from the transfer of the industrial chain? Who will it be this time?
The '40% transit deterrent' directly targets the pain point: this move is aimed at blocking the loophole of 'bypassing through Vietnam' and precisely striking the 'curved rescue' from specific sources. Supply chain transparency and origin certification instantly become a matter of life and death. Will the demand for blockchain traceability technology (think of certain supply chain tokens) surge as a result? This is a track worth ambushing.
'Zero tariff entry into Vietnam' is just a pipe dream? Trump envisions American SUVs sweeping the streets of Vietnam… but the reality is harsh! The average annual income in Vietnam is only $4,500 (1/20 of the US), and buying an entry-level American SUV could mean not eating or drinking for over a decade. Motorcycles are still king. This 'opening up' offers limited real benefits to American companies, more like a political symbolic gesture. The real winners might be American agricultural exporters (Vietnam has promised to buy $3 billion) and high-tech companies eager to open up the Vietnamese market (if export restrictions can be loosened).
The 'coincidental' business of the Trump family: the $1.5 billion luxury resort project in Vietnam just broke ground in May, and a trade agreement was signed in July... This timeline inevitably leads one to wonder if this is a 'lubricant' for negotiations? The intertwining of political and business interests is always the subtext of global trade. Those in the cryptocurrency circle understand that behind the news, there is always 'smart money' laying the groundwork in advance.
Case highlights:
Look at the market reaction: once the agreement was announced, Nike and Lululemon's stock prices instantly surged. Why? In the short term, it is about 'uncertainty being eliminated'. But Anna reminds you, looking back at history: at the beginning of Trump’s tariffs on China in 2018, related companies' stock prices also rose briefly, followed by a long period of cost digestion and supply chain restructuring pain. Today's rise may be a smokescreen before the escape pod launches, or the beginning of a value reassessment? It is necessary to penetrate the financial reports to see changes in cost structure!
The high walls built by tariffs cannot block the dark rivers of capital seeking profit. When Nike's factories in Vietnam begin to 'vote with their feet', and when the 40% transit tax gives rise to new strategies for 'origin games', where will the next wave of wealth flow to in the 'new Vietnam'? Follow Anna; next time, she will analyze how cryptocurrencies can become the 'underground highway' and 'value haven' for international trade under the tariff storm. #TradeChainReconstruction #NewInfrastructureInCryptocurrency
Anna summarizes:
This is not simply a matter of 'you raise taxes, I get a discount'. This is a capital drama reshaping the global supply chain, squeezing profit margins, and giving birth to new arbitrage models. Rising costs are obvious, supply chain transfers are the undercurrents, and the 'gray innovations' utilizing blockchain, cryptocurrency, and other tools for new types of cross-border settlement and value transfer may quietly sprout in the corners. Stay sharp; opportunities always grow in the cracks.
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