Written by: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise
Translation: AIMan@Golden Finance
In December 2024, the Bitwise research team looked to the future and made 10 bold predictions for 2025. These include: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana reaching all-time highs, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeding those of 2024, and Coinbase and Strategy entering the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.
Making predictions is relatively easy; the hard part is predicting whether they are correct. Even harder is examining the mistakes in one's predictions.
Thus, as we approach the halfway mark of 2025, we look back at our previous predictions to see which predictions were accurate, which were incorrect, and which are still too early to call. So far, we have gotten two right, one wrong, and the remaining seven are still pending.
The second half is expected to be exciting.
Prediction 1: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will reach all-time highs, with Bitcoin trading above $200,000.
Update: It is too early to draw conclusions.
This year, cryptocurrency asset prices have fluctuated. Thanks to strong ETF liquidity, increasing demand for Bitcoin from vault companies, and the establishment of U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves, the price of Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $112,000 in May. However, both Ethereum and Solana have seen declines this year, as macro risks hinder the acceleration of the bull market.
However, we are optimistic that the market will experience strong growth in the second half of the year. Progress in cryptocurrency legislation in Washington D.C., a growing demand from institutional investors for cryptocurrency investment, and extremely bullish sentiment towards stablecoins together create a strong profit environment.
Key Point: We maintain our prediction of BTC at $200,000 because the institutional demand for BTC is so high that it is difficult to maintain stable prices in the long term. We are slightly less confident in ETH and SOL, but hope that as interest in stablecoins rises, ETFs are approved, and funds managing ETH and SOL emerge, prices can rise significantly.
Prediction 2: The flow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 will be greater than in 2024.
Update: It is too early to draw conclusions.
In 2024, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted a total of $35 billion in inflows, breaking all records for this new asset class. So far in 2025, they have attracted about $13 billion. At this rate, we may not meet our target - but we expect inflows in the second half to accelerate significantly. What is the biggest factor? Major brokerages and wealth management platforms have recently approved access to Bitcoin ETFs, opening the doors to trillions of dollars in wealth for the BTC ETF market.
Key Point: It feels like this is about to happen. We are very optimistic about ETF liquidity in the second half of the year.
Prediction 3: Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab to become the world's most valuable brokerage, with its stock price breaking $700 per share.
Update: It looks unlikely.
Coinbase has had a spectacular performance this year. In May 2025, it became the first cryptocurrency company to be included in the S&P 500 index. Revenue grew by 24% year-on-year, and trading volume surged. Coinbase's stock price also performed well, with a market return rate twice that of Charles Schwab (44%, compared to Schwab's 22%).
Despite Coinbase’s strong business momentum, Wall Street still overlooks the quantity, quality, and potential growth of its business. And, to be honest, Charles Schwab's stock performance has been somewhat better than we expected. Therefore, the gap between Coinbase's market cap ($90 billion) and Schwab's ($164 billion) may be difficult to close by the end of the year.
Key Point: We still believe this will happen. It just might take a little longer than we initially thought.
Prediction 4: 2025 will be the 'Year of Cryptocurrency IPOs,' with at least 5 cryptocurrency unicorn companies going public in the U.S.
Update: Almost guaranteed.
We have already seen three cryptocurrency unicorn companies go public in the first half of 2025: Webull (valued at $5 billion), eToro (valued at $5.5 billion), and Circle (valued at $41 billion). This feast seems to be just beginning: partly due to Circle's sensational IPO, more and more companies are announcing plans to follow suit into the public market, including Gemini, Kraken, BitGo, Tron, Consensys, and American Bitcoin.
Key Point: It feels like we have this in the bag. In fact, five IPOs might be too pessimistic.
Prediction 5: Tokens launched by AI agents will lead to a larger memecoin craze than in 2024.
Update: Highly unlikely.
Memecoins crashed in the first quarter of 2025, led by the plummet of Trump Coin and Melania Coin, and the scandalous crash of the LIBRA coin held by Argentine President Milley. While AI agents remain an intriguing and evolving field, they have taken a backseat in 2025.
Key Point: We were wrong. You can't be right about everything.
Prediction 6: The number of countries holding Bitcoin will double, increasing from 9 to 18.
Update: It looks unlikely.
By the end of 2024, 9 countries will hold Bitcoin. By the end of the first half of the year, we see clear steps towards the goal of 18 countries: The United Arab Emirates disclosed its $400 million Bitcoin reserve in February, and Pakistan announced the establishment of its Bitcoin reserve in May. Notably, the United States launched a cryptocurrency reserve - a move that undoubtedly caught the attention of other countries' treasuries around the world.
However, we increasingly feel that for strategic reasons, many countries are exploring or accumulating Bitcoin out of public sight. We suspect that more countries will reveal their intentions by the end of the year.
Key Point: We are not too sure if we can reach 18 this year, but we might come close.
Prediction 7: Coinbase will enter the S&P 500 index, and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq 100 index, adding cryptocurrency risk exposure to (almost) every U.S. investor's portfolio.
Update: We succeeded.
Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) entered the Nasdaq 100 index at the end of 2024 (shortly after we released our predictions), and Coinbase entered the S&P 500 index in May. These moves will almost certainly stimulate demand for these companies' stocks from both active and passive index funds - we estimate that the inclusion of COIN will bring at least $15 billion in buying volume. But perhaps more importantly, they symbolize the deeper entrenchment of cryptocurrencies in mainstream markets. As Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said, 'Cryptocurrency is here to stay.'
Key Point: We got this prediction right.
Prediction 8: The U.S. Department of Labor will relax its guidance on cryptocurrencies in 401(k) plans, allowing billions to flow into crypto assets.
Update: We succeeded.
In May this year, the U.S. Department of Labor rescinded its 2022 guidance that required fiduciaries of 401(k) plans to be 'extra cautious' before including cryptocurrency investments in retirement plans. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer stated in the announcement that the agency is 'retracting this overreach and making it clear that investment decisions should be made by fiduciaries, not bureaucrats in Washington D.C.' In other words, the pie is getting bigger.
Key Point: We got this prediction right.
Prediction 9: With the long-awaited stablecoin legislation passed in the U.S., stablecoin assets will double to $400 billion.
Update: It is too early to draw conclusions.
The asset management size of stablecoins currently stands at $260 billion, having grown by over 30% since the beginning of the year. However, there is still a long way to go to break through $400 billion. Factors helping to drive this process include: (GENIUS Act) (a comprehensive stablecoin bill), which passed in the Senate in June by a vote of 68 to 30. Another important driver comes from traditional players like Mastercard - with 150 million merchants globally accepting the card - who have recently been actively integrating stablecoins into their business; additionally, major banks such as JPMorgan and Bank of America are also planning to launch their own stablecoins.
Key Point: This will be very close. We are not sure if the asset size can reach $400 billion by the end of the year, but the asset size will grow significantly.
Prediction 10: As Wall Street's acceptance of cryptocurrencies deepens, the value of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) will exceed $50 billion.
Update: Looking good.
This year, news about tokenization is everywhere. In May, New Jersey announced plans to tokenize nearly 400,000 property deeds worth $240 billion on the Avalanche platform. Dubai launched the first tokenized real estate platform on XRP. Kraken is launching a platform that allows non-U.S. investors to trade 'tokenized stocks' of popular companies like Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia.
At the beginning of 2025, the market size for tokenized risk assets (RWA) was $13 billion. Today, this market size is approximately $25 billion. We believe that applications in this field will accelerate in the second half of the year, ultimately breaking through the $50 billion mark.
Key Point: We believe this will happen.
