The rivalry between Chuan and Ma didn't last 24 hours; this time, it's still Ma who showed weakness first. It's not that he wants to, but the financing of SpaceX, Z's orders, and diplomatic pressure from Starlink are forcing him to back down. Their relationship remains in a state of restraint; the show is not over yet. BTC surged to $109,730 early this morning and has currently pulled back to $108,814. The market has returned to the tariff main line, and next Thursday is the deadline for reciprocal tariffs, raising volatility expectations.
ADP employment data has rarely turned negative, with -33,000 indicating that companies have started to initiate short-term survival measures. This is the first negative value since the pandemic, strengthening the market's alertness to economic cooling. Although the probability of interest rate cuts in July has only slightly decreased, risk assets have begun to price in easing in advance.
Today's BTC
Bitcoin didn't show significant volatility yesterday, and today's upward pressure is not great. The turnover rate continues to decline; although the trading volume has increased, the growth is limited, and the gap compared to the beginning of the year is significant. The turnover is mainly driven by investors who bottom-fished yesterday, and overall there is currently no systemic risk. Support levels are solid at $93,000 to $98,000; as long as there is no systemic risk, there shouldn't be much of a problem. Support at $103,000 to $107,500 is gradually solidifying, but it needs more time to settle.
Strategy: Pay attention to support at 104757, 103055, 100300; pressure is tentatively set at 112000; the key point at this moment is 109500.
Today's ETH
Regarding Ethereum spot ETFs, investors show a tendency to chase highs and cut losses, with Fidelity investors leading the way. Yesterday, BlackRock investors bought over 20,000 ETH while the market was down, which is relatively high recently, causing the net purchasing power of ETH to rarely exceed that of BTC. However, this purchasing power is still insufficient to drive up spot prices; traditional investors have limited funds, and the price increase mainly relies on native funds from the crypto circle.
Strategy: Pay attention to support at 2403, 2343, 2285; no pressure for now; key levels are 2466, 2585.
Altcoins
What can be confirmed: The bull market in US stocks and the cryptocurrency circle is ongoing.
Once BTC breaks through its historical high, it will accelerate its rise, and ETH will also completely explode. US stocks have several mainstream coins' micro-strategy versions; yesterday ETH rose 6%, and SBET rose 30%. With this kind of volatility in US stocks, there's no need to buy altcoins.
Have you noticed? The altcoins that surged due to short squeezes a few days ago, like $DMC, $MYX, $TUT, are now stagnant despite the market rebound. Why?
It's simple: Previously, they relied entirely on short squeezes to surge, but now that the market's focus has shifted, no one is watching, and the fuel for the rally has also run out. Are you still waiting for them to continue surging? The whales have long left!
Moreover, the sentiment is currently leaning bullish, and the whales may take advantage of everyone's enthusiasm for bottom-fishing, directly turning around to dump the market and harvest again. Don't be fooled by the rebound; retail investors will always line up to be slaughtered.
Last night the long-short ratio was 0.5, and then it surged. Now the long-short ratio is 0.46, the entire market is shorting, and those shorting are twice as many as those going long!
If you're trading cryptocurrencies with high leverage, you're probably dumbfounded right now, right?
Staying up late watching the price, afraid of liquidation? Don't deny it, it's you! Dreaming of becoming rich in one wave, is it possible? Even if the direction is right, the position is ultimately gone. High leverage, large amounts, exchanges love you as a 'VIP', watching how you open positions, and the outcome is always a loss. Throughout history, who has ever won at the casino? Don't be naive, you are just a gambler, recognize yourself!
I do not encourage using leverage; the outcome is always the same. When I first entered the circle, a senior told me, 'Chopping wood for a thousand days, burning it in a day.' It wasn't until I went bankrupt in 2019 that I fully understood. Now, even if I am bearish on July, I only dare to play with small amounts and 1x leverage. Once is enough to experience that pain.
Today's golden dog: HODL
The official moon may create a second useless coin similar to bonk! HODL: Explains the cryptocurrency strategy 'Hold on for Dear Life', which has been mentioned many times by the official affiliated accounts.
The developer just recently increased their position.
