The U.S. Senate passed Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' on Tuesday by a single vote, striving to get it through the House of Representatives this week. Some in the market are bullish on Bitcoin, but historical and interest rate signals reveal a more complex outlook. (Background: The U.S. 'Small Non-Farm' ADP report is out! June jobs decreased by 33,000, Bitcoin stands at $108,000) (Additional context: Musk announces Neuralink 'brain implant chip' surgery successful! The first patient is recovering well) The U.S. Senate passed the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' proposed by Trump on Tuesday, hoping to raise the U.S. debt ceiling to $5 trillion. Currently, Trump is working hard to gain the support of Republican opposition, aiming to pass the bill before the July 4th Independence Day. The bill will not only affect the tax system and industrial development across various classes in the U.S., but many Bitcoin supporters believe that raising the debt could push Bitcoin to new highs in 2025. However, historical data shows no significant positive correlation between Bitcoin prices and adjustments to the U.S. debt ceiling. Raising the debt does not necessarily equal long-term benefits According to Cointelegraph analysis, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that if this bill passes, the U.S. deficit will expand by another $3.3 trillion over the next decade. The market sees this massive borrowing as a signal of 'dollar depreciation,' theoretically benefiting Bitcoin (BTC). However, historically, charts show that within six months after the U.S. raises or suspends the debt ceiling, in most cases, Bitcoin drops first and then rises, even reversing directly, except for the positive returns seen after the adjustment in June 2023. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argues that the bill helps 'manage debt,' but NorthmanTrader founder Sven Henrich warns that this move could exacerbate inflation. Image source: Cointelegraph Investors should keep an eye on three key signals However, fundamentally, raising the debt ceiling is just a prologue; what truly influences Bitcoin's direction are the Federal Reserve's policies, the dollar index, and long-term yields. If the Fed shifts to easing, the dollar continues to weaken, and liquidity rises, funds may flow back into gold, stocks, and Bitcoin; conversely, if interest rates remain high in the long term, risk assets may come under pressure. The tug-of-war over the debt ceiling provides a magnifying glass, amplifying market fears about inflation and interest rates, as well as the tension of Bitcoin's 'digital gold' narrative. However, ultimately, Bitcoin's market will revert to the balance of overall policy and funding costs, rather than the passage or failure of a single bill.

#BTC