Bitcoin 'Midnight Thunder': The three nuclear-level drivers behind 90,000 liquidations and $200 million in losses

A lightning war in the crypto market, jointly directed by policy, technology, and leverage, suddenly ignited on the evening of July 2nd, Eastern Time.

Last night, the crypto market experienced a dramatic reversal, with Bitcoin violently rising from an intraday low of $105,344 to $108,280, increasing over 2% within a few hours, leading to over 90,000 liquidations across the network, with total liquidation amount reaching $201 million.

This sudden surge is not coincidental, but a precise resonance of three 'nuclear-level' factors amid macro changes.

News: Three major policy hurricanes sweep through the market

  1. Expectations for 'fiscal stimulus' from the (Big and Beautiful Act)
    The US Senate narrowly passed the bill on July 2nd with a vote of 51:50, core contents includeextending corporate tax cuts from the Trump era, reducing clean energy subsidies, increasing defense spending, among others.
    Although the bill still needs to be reviewed by the House, the market has already sensed the atmosphere of 'fiscal stimulus' — Goldman Sachs quickly moved the Fed's interest rate cut expectations from December to September 10th, and US Treasury Secretary Yellen hinted that 'cuts may come earlier than September'. Liquidity easing expectations have directly ignited risk asset buying.

  2. The 'expected differential dividend' of the US-Vietnam tariff agreement
    Trump unexpectedly announced a trade agreement with Vietnam late at night:Vietnam will reduce tariffs on US goods to zero, while the US will impose only a 20% tariff on exports to Vietnam (far below the 40% threatened in April).
    This 'concession' surprised the market: companies like Nike, which rely on the Vietnamese supply chain, saw stock prices soar 4%,the three major US stock indices surged collectively (the S&P 500 broke historical highs three times in four days). Risk sentiment spilled over into the crypto market, with BTC and US stocks rarely rising in sync.

  3. The 'implicit blood transfusion mechanism' of the stablecoin bill
    The previously passed (GENIUS Act) mandates stablecoin purchases of US Treasuries, while the (Beautiful Big Bill) further builds 'USD → Stablecoin → Global Payments → US Treasury Reflow’ closed loop 26.
    Current leading stablecoins hold nearly $200 billion in US Treasuries (accounting for 0.5% of total US Treasuries), and Citi predicts it will soar to$1.2 trillion.The opening of compliant fund gates introduces fresh capital into the crypto market.

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Technical analysis: a liquidity trap under the tug of war between bulls and bears

  • Key clearing area triggers 'short avalanche'
    Bitcoin previously formed in the range of $105,000 - $108,800liquidity dense area, with a large number of short stop-loss orders accumulating above $108,800. After breaking through this threshold last night,cascading liquidations pushed the price close to $109,000, forming a technical bull market confirmation signal.

  • Derivatives-driven fragile balance
    This round of increase is mainly driven by futures leverage,with a spot/derivative trading volume ratio of only 0.074, greatly amplifying speculation and volatility. However, on-chain data showslong-term holding addresses continue to accumulate, and the number of wallets holding over a million dollars in BTC has surged 5 times, providing support for the market.

  • Indicator resonance releases bullish signals
    Weekly closing above $107,720 confirms an upward trend; MACD histogram turns positive and shows a bullish crossover; the Bollinger Bands opening indicates a rebound in volatility. If it breaks through $110,000,$113,000 - $130,000 target area will be fully opened.

Future market projection by Shen Ce: three-act drama trajectory and key turning points

▶ Short-term (July): Policy implementation and liquidation game

  • Upside scenario: If the (Big and Beautiful Act) passes the House + weak non-farm data (to be released on July 4th), expectations for interest rate cuts will strengthen, pushing BTC to test $110,000 - $113,000.

  • Risk scenario: $107,100 becomes a new defense line for bulls and bears, breaking below may trigger a wave of long liquidations, falling back to $92,000 - $95,000.

▶ Mid-term (Q3): The ultimate game between US Treasuries and interest rate cuts

  • If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September as expected, combined with the stablecoin bill absorbing US Treasury demand (Deutsche Bank predicts stablecoins will hold $1.6 trillion in US Treasuries), a weaker dollar + excessive liquidity could help BTC challenge Standard Chartered's forecast of $135,000.

  • But beware of the 'US Treasuries-Stablecoin death spiral': if US Treasury sell-offs trigger stablecoin de-pegging, it will negatively impact the crypto market.


95% of global stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, creating a 'shadow dollar network' outside the traditional banking system.
Bitcoin, as the core carrier of decentralized value storage, benefits from the digital penetration of the dollar, but may also face new competition after the rise of sovereign CBDCs.

While the market is still immersed in the frenzy of surging prices, a more severe storm is counting down: On July 9th, the US's suspension period for 'reciprocal tariffs' with multiple countries will officially end, with tariffs as high as 50% potentially severely impacting the global supply chain.

If Bitcoin stabilizes above $110,000 before policy implementation, it will validate the transition of 'safe-haven asset' to 'macro asset' — and this time, it is not just retail investors and whales on stage, but also the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury, and global sovereign funds.

When the $36 trillion US Treasury dam needs stablecoins to 'release floodwaters', and when on-chain dollars become the carrier of a new hegemony, Bitcoin's surge may just be the prologue to a rewrite of the financial order in digital civilization.

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