Bitcoin surged nearly $3000, reaching a high of around 107998. Sweet Dream mentioned in yesterday's article (as expected, it plummeted! The conflict between the U.S. and China, Bitcoin dropped to 106,000! Altcoins are 'dead', the altcoin season has turned into an altcoin sacrifice! The second half of the year to sprint, layout four main lines! Regarding the interest rate cut, Powell's latest statement!) that Bitcoin is currently mainly long. Both 106000 and 104700 can be contended for short long positions, and Sweet Dream went long at 106000, making a profit of 2000 points.
BTC
Bitcoin fell all day yesterday, the high-level consolidation area was gradually broken. There was no surge in volume to accelerate, but it was pulled up in the morning, returning to the consolidation zone to start fluctuating. The market is likely to maintain a fluctuating consolidation before the major non-farm data comes out.
Bitcoin's intraday rebound seems strong, but the trading volume during the V-rebound is not large. The height of the rebound may be somewhat limited. Pay attention to the resistance at 108200; as we get closer to the 11w mark, there is ample bearish liquidity above. Since it has chosen to consolidate at high levels, it makes sense to check the stop-loss of the bears.
Shorting: The range around -108200-108888 still allows for the formulation of short positions.
Bottom-fishing: I still favor the 104700 level, so I will continue to wait for opportunities here. If it breaks below this level, it will weaken, and I will look to rebound to 103100.
ETH
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's trading difficulty is much lower; there hasn't even been a stop-loss risk in the past few days. ETH's morning consolidation zone tested the lower edge at 2380, ultimately successfully gaining support and stopping the decline, rebounding to 2450 where it began to show signs of stagnation. The smaller levels are naturally retreating.
There is no clear trend within the consolidation zone, with resistance at 2520 also being heavy at the upper edge of the fluctuation zone, which is a target for short-term bulls. A complete breakthrough and solid support in this area will allow for continued upward rebounds. Meanwhile, keep an eye on the key support at 2380; if it breaks, the bearish trend will continue.
Strategy: Trade within the fluctuating market, 2380-2520. --- Strong and weak position at 2460, which can be considered a point for taking profits on stage orders; for long positions, it is advisable to secure some profits here.
Altcoins
Altcoins are in a state of widespread decline, with very poor liquidity. VCs are losing money, secondary purchases are losing money; only project parties and bears are making profits. Retail investors that are still around have recognized the reality that altcoins are all air; those who haven't realized this should have lost more than 90% of their funds. Friends still hoping for a new bubble narrative will have to wait a long time; these have all been played out, and there are not many seasoned investors who don't understand these plays. In the crypto circle, it can be said to be what you seek.
In the past six months, altcoins have only seen a significant increase for one week (weekly increase greater than 20%). 'Altcoin Week' means that as long as there is a big increase for one week, clearing out positions will be a way to escape the peak!
Now with this narrative of coins and stocks, the speculation in altcoins will be compressed even more, and the abandoned ones will be even more thoroughly discarded. My USDT can buy better assets; who would buy an altcoin with no fundamentals? Trash altcoins and new projects should be heavily shorted.
Sweet Dream previously emphasized in an article to short altcoins; any coins that have recently surged are targets for retail investors to short, referred to as liquidity cannon fodder! Recently, I have also consistently insisted on shorting altcoins when they rise, shorting unlocked coins. If you want to know which coins to short, you can ask Sweet Dream; the altcoin strategy cycle needs to change with market conditions. There is no strategy that can always yield profits, but there are certainly strategies that can yield consistent profits.
July interest rate cut, will the market change tomorrow?
Tonight's small non-farm ADP data will be released, with 33,000 far lower than the expected 95,000 and the previous value of 29,000. The June ADP employment figure is the worst reading since March 2023. Before the non-farm employment data is released tomorrow, it is a challenging time. There is also a view that household data points to a weak market. The market has fully priced in the possibility of an interest rate cut in September, with a 22% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
This brings us back to the logic that bad data on employment is good data for interest rate cuts. After the data is released, the probability of a July rate cut has increased somewhat. Combined with Powell's remarks yesterday, while the probability of a rate cut at the July meeting is still not high, it is no longer impossible.
The small non-farm usually serves as a precursor to the large non-farm data, providing some guidance. Therefore, the market for the large non-farm tomorrow evening is expected to bring significant volatility. Tomorrow the community will operate together; regardless of the bulls or bears, as long as there is volatility, we can profit from both long and short positions. Every day is our bull market!
