according to the materials of the site - The Bit Journal

The Sui token unlock scheduled for July 1 will release 58.35 million SUI, about 1.72% of the project's market capitalization, into public circulation. The $164 million unlock event represents the largest supply spike since the mainnet launch and revives concerns that excess tokens could suppress demand just as broader altcoin sentiment cools.

Unlike linear vesting graphs that drip coins daily, this Sui token unlock comes in one lump: ecosystem grants, early distributions to contributors, and tranches of investors that have been locked for 12 months. According to data from CryptoRank and Blockcast, Sui will face three more significant unlocks before 2026, but the July tranche ranks among the three largest in size, making it a crucial stress test for the network's tokenomics structure.

Derivatives departments report short positions of $16.66 million near the resistance zone of $2.848, indicating that traders are preparing for a downturn. At the same time, an outflow of spot funds on the exchange totaling $16.4 million suggests that long-term holders are accumulating on the dip, highlighting the split between fast-money futures traders and conviction-based buyers.

A study by Brave New Coin describes the unlock as a "volatile but survivable" event, noting that comparable unlocks for Aptos and Avalanche in 2024 led to double-digit drawdowns that unfolded within a month as new supply was absorbed by DeFi incentives.

Momentum has softened ahead of the Sui token unlock, with a seven-day fluctuation from $2.60 to $2.90, tapering off to $2.70. Technical analysts point to the 50-day exponential moving average at $2.84 as short-term resistance; a sustained break below $2.60 could open the way to the $2.40 support indicated in the AMBCrypto chart review.

Token unlocks are now dominating early narratives at level 1. Just in the first week of July, over $484 million in unlocks covering Sui, Solana, Optimism, and Dogecoin are set to test market depth. Sui's share is the largest component of any single asset, making it a leader in how aggressively traders punish for supply shocks in the current cycle.

The Sui token unlock in July turns the token supply milestone into a crucible of market psychology. While traders prepare for short-term fluctuations, structural factors—reliable staking yield, expanding DeFi activity, and transparent rights distribution—offer buffers against chaotic crashes. History shows that unlock-induced drops can transform into accumulation phases when network fundamentals overshadow dilution fears. For now, vigilance and disciplined risk management remain key principles as Sui faces its most serious market maturity test to date.


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