Bitcoin in July usually maintains stability and rarely drops sharply, but this year, selling pressure is increasing, and risk-off behavior is opening signs of a shift in the cryptocurrency market.
MAIN CONTENT
Bitcoin in July has always been a period of low negative volatility, but this year, there is increased selling pressure from realized profits.
The pressure to withdraw capital from the Bitcoin ETF along with profit outflows indicates that investors are becoming more cautious.
The structural differences of the current cycle may challenge Bitcoin's historical sustainable performance in July.
Is Bitcoin in July really as resilient as previous cycles?
According to historical data, Bitcoin has never recorded a decline of more than 10% in July, demonstrating exceptional stability in the cryptocurrency market. However, in 2025, despite being only 5.5% below the ATH, Bitcoin still could not break through and fluctuated around 105,000–111,000 USD for over 40 days.
The stagnation along with two lower lows recently shows that investor patience has somewhat decreased. Instead of taking advantage of the price drop to buy in, many traders may choose to withdraw from the market.
Selling pressure is increasing; is the market losing momentum?
Data from Glassnode shows that realized profits on the Bitcoin network peaked at the end of June with 2.4 billion USD locked in at an average price of 107,198 USD. The 7-day average reached 1.52 billion USD, higher than the 2025 average of 1.14 billion USD, but much lower than the late 2024 peak of 4–5 billion USD.
A spike in realized profits is a sign that investors are starting to exit, not a growth based on market confidence.
Glassnode, June 2025 Report
This, along with Bitcoin ETF cash flow reporting a net withdrawal of 342 million USD at the beginning of July according to Farside, reflects the selling pressure becoming evident, shaking confidence in the uptrend.
Why might the Bitcoin cycle in July be structurally different?
July often marks a recovery from the first half of the year as institutional investors rebalance their portfolios and increase holdings in risk assets like Bitcoin. The year 2022 is a testament to this with a recovery of 16.8% after a 37.3% drop in June.
However, in 2025, persistent inflation pressure exceeding the Fed's 2% target leads to unclear expectations, causing much risk capital to temporarily halt inflows into Bitcoin. Cash inflows into BTC are gradually decreasing, while narrow price volatility makes this July potentially different, posing short-term bottom risks.
July has always been a transitional period for capital flows and market sentiment, but currently, with prolonged inflation and slowing cash flow, investors should be cautious.
Ali Charts, Cryptocurrency Analyst, Summer 2025
Comparison table of Bitcoin ETF cash flow pressure at the beginning of July over the years
Bitcoin ETF cash flow in the first week of July (million USD) BTC price trend in July Macro data highlights 2022 +150 Up 16.8% CPI inflation down 0.6% MoM 2025 -342.2 Sideways, with 2 lower lows High stable inflation, Fed pressure maintained
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Bitcoin usually behave in July?
History shows that Bitcoin rarely loses more than 10% of its price in July; this month is usually stable and tends to recover slightly after the first half of the year.
Where is the current selling pressure on Bitcoin coming from?
Most of the outflows are from increased realized profits and cash withdrawals from the Bitcoin ETF, indicating that large investors are reducing their positions in the short term.
How does inflation policy affect Bitcoin in July?
Prolonged high inflation increases investor caution, reducing capital inflows into Bitcoin during this important month.
Can Bitcoin break through ATH in July?
Currently, there are no strong bullish signals, and market confidence remains weak; the potential for breaking the ATH is unclear and requires further monitoring.
What should investors pay attention to in July 2025?
It is important to closely observe cash flow, market sentiment, and macro data to determine the appropriate position, avoiding emotional actions based on short-term volatility.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-thang-7-tang-manh-doi-mat-thach-thuc/
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