Global banking giant Standard Chartered has reaffirmed its bullish stance on Bitcoin (BTC), forecasting that the cryptocurrency will hit new all-time highs of $135,000 by the end of Q3 2025 and could surge to $200,000 by the end of the year.
In a research report shared with Cointelegraph, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, stated that Bitcoin’s price trajectory has diverged from historical halving cycles due to strong institutional demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buying.
## Bitcoin Halving Cycle No Longer a Major Downside Factor
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has experienced a downturn roughly 18 months after a halving event—a mechanism that reduces mining rewards by 50% every four years. However, Kendrick argues that this pattern may no longer hold due to strong ETF inflows and institutional adoption, which were absent in previous cycles.
- Previous halvings (2016, 2020) led to price declines ~18 months later.
- 2024 halving impact may be muted due to ETF demand and corporate accumulation.
- Standard Chartered expects continued upward momentum rather than a late-2025 correction.
Despite this optimism, Kendrick acknowledged that Q3 and early Q4 could see volatility as some traders remain cautious about historical halving trends.
## Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Corporate Demand Driving Growth
Kendrick highlighted that ETF inflows and corporate BTC purchases totaled 245,000 BTC in Q2 2025, and he expects even higher demand in Q3 and Q4.
However, recent data shows a brief slowdown:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $342.3M in outflows on June 25 (first outflows in 15 days).
- Despite this, net inflows over the past 15 days remain strong at $4.8 billion.
## Long-Term Bitcoin Price Target: $500,000 by 2028
Standard Chartered has maintained an ultra-bullish long-term outlook, predicting Bitcoin could reach $500,000 per coin by 2028, driven by:
- Increasing institutional adoption
- Scarcity post-halving
- Growing use as a reserve asset
### Conclusion
While Bitcoin’s price may face short-term fluctuations, Standard Chartered’s analysis suggests that the halving’s historical bearish impact could be offset by sustained institutional demand. If ETF inflows and corporate buying continue at current levels, BTC could see a major rally in late 2025, potentially surpassing $200,000 by December.