I am Old Zhao, a veteran of the crypto space for ten years. Today's rebound from 105,500 to 107,000 seems like a bottoming reversal, but in reality, it is just short covering plus institutional support—a form of artificial respiration. The real crisis has not been resolved!
1. The real driving forces behind the rebound: three major forces are holding it up
1. The false climax of short covering
Yesterday, when the price dropped to 105,500, a bunch of retail investors who were shorting felt they had made enough profit and concentrated their positions to cash out safely. This act of closing positions itself drove prices higher. It’s not that the bulls are strong; rather, the bears stepped on each other. It's like a group of people squeezing to escape a fire, instead blocking the exit.
2. The facade of institutional support
BlackRock and these large institutions hold 72.4 billion USD worth of Bitcoin ETFs, and they are more afraid of a crash triggering a redemption wave than retail investors. If the price falls below 105,000 today, programmed stop-loss orders will trigger successive liquidations, so they must step in at critical points to place buy orders to support the market; this is not bottom fishing, but self-rescue.
3. Long-term holders' Zen-like passivity
The old bones with 14.7 million BTC haven't moved at all. Their cost might be just a few tens of thousands of dollars. Now, a 10% drop from just over 100,000 is just a fluctuation for them, not a disaster. If they don't sell off, there won't be real panic in the market, and the rebound can barely hold on.
2. Don't get carried away! There are three hidden dangers behind the rebound
Liquidity exhaustion: Trading volume doesn't lie
Today's rebound saw spot trading volume drop by 40% compared to last week, indicating that no one is genuinely chasing the rise. The market is like a stagnant pond, with big funds waiting for Thursday's U.S. non-farm payroll data; no one wants to be the early bird.
The leverage ghost is still hovering overhead
Just a few days after the entire network saw a liquidation of 980 million USD last week, the funding rate for contracts quietly turned positive again. This means gamblers are back at the table betting on a big rise, and history has repeatedly proven that such times are often closest to a crash.
Political black swans can explode at any time
Trump and Musk suddenly clashed over electric vehicle subsidies, and Tesla's stock plummeted by 5.4% in one day. Such clashes between big shots can easily spill over into the crypto space, which is now a puppet of Wall Street.
Core logic:
The third quarter is traditionally a slow season for Bitcoin, with an average increase of only 6% over the past decade. Want to break the previous high in July? The probability is lower than winning the lottery.
If you really want a big rise, you must wait for two signals: ETF daily net inflow breaking 500 million USD, or the Federal Reserve suddenly announcing a rate cut! Otherwise, any rebound is just a paper tiger. If you're feeling helpless or confused while trading in the crypto space, I hope my sharing can inspire and help you! Follow to avoid getting lost; Old Zhao helps you stay a step ahead and create an information gap with others! #BTC走势分析 $BTC