$BTC
Skyllexbai's In-depth Analysis of Pancake Technology: Weekly Divergence and Bull-Bear Game under Wave Pattern (Organized by AI)
In the context of the cryptocurrency market's intense volatility, Bitcoin's trend has drawn significant attention from investors. By analyzing the weekly MACD indicator and wave theory from a dual perspective, one can further clarify the potential evolution of its future trend.
1. Key Signals of Weekly MACD Divergence
Currently in the market, the weekly top divergence for Bitcoin has not been formally established. Confirmation of the top divergence requires meeting two core conditions: first, a divergence pattern must form between price and the indicator, and second, a death cross at the weekly level must occur and complete its closing. Judging from the current trend, the effective confirmation of the weekly top divergence may require 2-3 weeks.
There are two potential key directions: if Bitcoin closes strongly above $10,500 this week, completely engulfing the previous bearish candle caused by 'war' and continuing the upward momentum into next week, the MACD momentum bars may rebound, providing technical support for a bullish counterattack. Conversely, if the price continues to oscillate within the current range and fails to recover $10,500 this week, the MACD momentum bars are likely to close negatively next week; if the bearish bars persist and the market remains sluggish, the closing next week may促使 the weekly MACD to form a divergence and get confirmed.
Once the weekly top divergence is formed, Bitcoin may face two trend choices: first, to replicate the previous bull market peak of $69,000 and initiate a deep decline; second, to enter a long-term oscillation phase above $90,000, digesting divergence pressure through a 'horizontal replacement of declines', a process that typically takes about 6 weeks until the weekly MACD momentum bars rebound.
2. Trend Deduction from the Perspective of Wave Theory
From the analysis of wave patterns, the downward trend that started from $119,000 has not shown a clear driving wave structure, suggesting a lower likelihood of it being part of the 'C wave', though further observation and confirmation with subsequent trends are needed. If this judgment holds, the market may have entered a combined adjustment wave phase starting from the last high of $109,588.
In a combined adjustment wave, the possibility of constructing a 'WXY' wave type with $10,900 as the top is relatively high, where the Y wave may present a triangular shape, forming a larger cycle oscillation pattern. Judging from the current trend, there is a greater possibility...
3. Investment Advice
No advice, wait to die after losing everything.