Can Bitcoin's price stand firm at the $108,000 level before the end of this week? This is the question posed to traders by the prediction platform Myriad. As the deadline approaches, traders are facing a critical moment of decision.
Just yesterday, when Bitcoin trading prices hovered around $107,640, breaking through this threshold seemed a sure bet. At that time, only a 0.33% increase (360 dollars) was needed to reach the target, and the betting ratio on the Myriad platform was basically even, with the bearish side holding a slight advantage at 50.8%.
However, today the situation has taken a sharp turn. As Bitcoin retreated to the critical level of $106,000 (a key price to watch in July), the odds on the Myriad platform changed dramatically. Predictors now believe there is a 69% chance that Bitcoin will not break through $108,000 before July 4, indicating that this week may end on a bearish note.
So, what trends does the chart data reveal for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin Price: Signals Revealed by the Chart
When Bitcoin hovers below the $108,000 psychological level, the core issue is not whether the price can reach that level, but whether it can close above it—there is an essential difference between the two.
By analyzing the 4-hour candlestick chart, it can be found that since June 25, Bitcoin has only closed above $108,000 three times in 30 trading periods. More importantly, since June 9, Bitcoin has not achieved a daily close above that level—historically, Bitcoin's daily closing price has surpassed that threshold only 8 times.
However, for day traders, 4-hour level technical analysis can provide key insights for this short-term forecast:
From a purely technical perspective, Bitcoin is facing the typical dilemma of being 'within reach yet far away.' The 4-hour chart shows that the price has attempted multiple times to break through the $107,500-$108,000 range, only to face selling pressure. These failed breakout attempts have left clear upper shadows on the candlesticks, indicating that buyers' attempts to push prices up are repeatedly countered by sellers' strong strikes at resistance levels.
This near distance is highly deceptive. While a 2% increase may seem trivial in a cryptocurrency market where daily volatility often reaches 3-5%, the inability to break through this key level suggests a deeper market mechanism. For position traders, an effective breakthrough of this resistance level would mean that bulls have enough momentum to push prices to new highs in the short term.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) currently reads 17, far below the 25 threshold needed to confirm trend strength. This weak reading shows that Bitcoin is in a non-trending volatility state, which is particularly unfavorable when attempting to break through key resistance.
Specifically regarding the current trend, Bitcoin has been oscillating in the $107,000-$108,000 range since June 25: sometimes dipping below this level, with fewer breakout attempts, but always returning to the horizontal channel, confirming the judgment of a lack of clear trend in the short term and validating the accuracy of the ADX indicator.
The squeezed momentum indicator shows that the market is brewing bearish momentum, indicating that the downward trend prevails over a shorter period. This bearish pressure directly contradicts the bullish momentum needed to break through $108,000. In short, traders currently seem more inclined to believe that the market will experience a bearish pullback rather than continue a long-term upward trend.
However, there is one technical indicator that still holds a glimmer of hope: the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This indicator guides trading decisions by calculating the average price over a specific period. Continuing to observe the 4-hour chart, the 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, maintaining a bullish 'golden cross' structure. This arrangement suggests that despite weakening short-term momentum, the overall trend remains upward.
However, the price has fallen below the 50-period EMA, indicating short-term bearish pressure.
Another valuable indicator is the visible range volume distribution. Currently, the price is trading above the control point, which is usually a bullish signal. However, since the price is close to the resistance level and lacks momentum, the likelihood of a pullback (i.e., 'mean reversion') is higher.
The volume distribution chart can highlight the price areas with the most active trading—these areas often form natural support or resistance, as traders typically set their take-profit or stop-loss orders here. For example, after you build a position at a certain price level, you might set your stop-loss at the same level to control risk.
Although the current price level is within the buying range of most traders (slightly bullish), the lack of clear direction is insufficient to determine market sentiment.
Weekend Effect
A frequently overlooked key factor is that July 4 falls on a Friday in US time, while the prediction deadline is at 23:59 UTC (which is already Saturday morning for most global markets).
Weekend trading is typically characterized by reduced institutional participation, shrinking overall volume, and widening bid-ask spreads; essentially, only the 'diehard' crypto enthusiasts remain active, as this market never sleeps.
This environment makes it more difficult to sustain a breakthrough at key resistance levels—because there is a fundamental lack of sufficient buying power to absorb selling pressure.
Conclusion: Easy to Peak, Hard to Hold
Strictly based on chart analysis, the probability that Bitcoin will at least reach $108,000 before the July 4 deadline remains relatively high—after all, it requires less than a 2% increase. But for it to close above that level? Currently, the hope seems bleak. The reasons are as follows:
Historical rejection rate: The chart shows that there have been at least 4-5 recent attempts to break through this area, all of which ended in failure, forming a statistical precedent.
Momentum divergence: Although the price is near the high point, momentum indicators (RSI, ADX) show that the driving force is weakening—a typical top divergence pattern.
Time decay: As the deadline approaches and momentum wanes, each hour that fails to break through will reduce the probability of success.
Volume requirements: Breaking through and holding a new price level requires sustained volume, while the weak ADX reading indicates insufficient trading power.
Weekend liquidity exhaustion: The deadline coincides with a critical moment when institutional funds are pulling out.
Of course, the above analysis is based on the premise that market conditions remain unchanged. But this is the cryptocurrency market, and anything is possible. When Bitcoin is just 0.33% away from the $108,000 target, even a single large order, political statement, 'whale' movement, or social media sentiment could completely change the outcome. While the chart indicates that resistance may hold, the predictive power of traditional technical analysis inevitably diminishes in the face of such a small gap.
Key price level reminder:
Immediate resistance level: $108,000 (forecast target)
Key support level: $105,000 (psychological level)
Next resistance after breakout: $110,000 (previous high area)
For market participants predicting outcomes, this technical formation suggests a binary outcome biased towards failure—similar to opening an overly leveraged long position. However, with the deadline approaching, external catalysts are likely to play a decisive role. It is advised to closely monitor early signals of sustained breakouts, such as increases in volume and ADX breaking above 20, while remaining cautious of any sudden news that may temporarily invalidate technical analysis.
This article is translated from Jose Antonio Lanz, original title: Moon or Doom: Will Bitcoin See Fireworks on July 4
