When Powell and Trump both draw their swords, the market is bound to bleed - this is not a correction, but the death knell before the collapse of dollar hegemony!
Brothers, were you scared last night by the market flash crash? I was watching the charts, seeing Bitcoin crash through $106,000, altcoins were blood red, and those tech moguls in the US were lying on the ground... My scalp went numb! This is not a correction; it's a collective leap from buildings!
But do you know what hurts the most? It's that the head of the Federal Reserve, Powell, personally admitted: 'The way America spends money will eventually lead to disaster!' What does this mean? Simply put:
America's debt ($36 trillion!) can still be managed now, but the interest is too high ($3.3 billion just in interest every day!), and the borrowing is getting worse (annual deficit exceeds $1 trillion). This path will lead to a crash! It's like maxing out your credit card, only paying the minimum each month, with the interest compounding, and ultimately you can only declare bankruptcy! Powell might as well just shout: 'Stop spending money recklessly!'
The funniest part is, Trump and Powell are still blaming each other! Powell says, 'If it weren't for Trump’s reckless tariffs driving up prices, I would have flooded the market with liquidity!' And what about Trump? On one hand, he talks about a 'Bitcoin strategic reserve', while on the other, he frantically criticizes electric vehicle subsidies, making Musk furious. Even more absurd, Powell directly slaps back: 'Federal Reserve? Not touching Bitcoin!' These two are singing in discord, how can the market not be confused? I'm truly amazed; when gods fight, the commoners suffer!
A more alarming signal follows: even US Treasuries are unwanted! In the latest auction, buyer interest was frighteningly low. Even big investors like China are frantically reducing their holdings. What does this indicate? Global trust in the dollar as an 'IOU' is collapsing! The foundation has loosened, how can the houses above not sway?
News front: Triple black swan resonance triggers a crash.
1. Trump's tariff nuclear bomb surprise.
The core trigger for last night's global market bloodbath was Trump's sudden announcement of a 50% tariff on the EU, while threatening 'if China does not compromise, comprehensive reciprocal tariffs will be initiated on July 9'. This directly triggered:
US tech stocks plummet collectively.
The dollar index soars to 101.5.
Risk assets face indiscriminate selling, with Bitcoin plunging 6.3% in one hour and Ethereum dropping 8.1%.
2. The liquidity strangulation mechanism is activated.
The deeper crisis lies in the ignition of the debt bomb's fuse:
The scale of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase agreement surged by $120 billion in a single day, and the bank reserve ratio fell to 9.8% of GDP.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has surpassed 4.8%, reaching a new high for 2025.
Institutions urgently retreat: BlackRock's IBIT ETF sees a net outflow of $320 million in a single day.
3. Regulatory undercurrents targeting in succession.
The Ethereum ETF staking proposal was quietly aborted by the SEC, and BlackRock suddenly withdrew its application.
The German government announces the sale of the last 24,000 BTC.
Coinbase is reported to be cooperating with the Treasury to monitor on-chain transactions, collapsing the decentralized narrative.
Technical analysis: Multi-cycle indicators issue a warning of a crash.
1. Bitcoin's key support levels have all been breached.
Daily level: MACD death cross expands, RSI falls below 40 entering a weak zone.
Key support levels: $105,000 (psychological barrier) → $102,500 (20-day moving average) → $100,000 (the line of life and death for bulls and bears).
On-chain alert: A whale deposits 38,000 BTC (about $4 billion) into exchanges within 24 hours, setting a record for the year.
2. Ethereum is deeply trapped in a death spiral.
ETH/BTC exchange rate falls to 0.022 (the lowest since January 2024).
The staking economy collapses: actual yields are only 3.12%, far lower than the 4.8% on US Treasuries, triggering institutional withdrawals.
Technical breakdown: After breaking the $2,500 support, there are no defenses below (next support at $2,350).
Personal views from Shen Ce: The three harsh truths behind the crash.
1. The 'longs killing longs' trap controlled by institutions.
By closely observing the data, one can find that 78% of the liquidation orders are long positions with over 20x leverage. This is by no means retail behavior, but institutions using options expiration dates and tariff news to target and strangle high-leverage follow-up trades, paving the way for low-price accumulation.
2. Altcoins enter the 'zombie season'.
We must recognize the reality: institutional funds only acknowledge BTC/ETH!
Bitcoin's market share has surpassed 65%.
Among the top 50 altcoins,43 underperformed BTC.
Those players fantasizing about becoming wealthy through altcoins are becoming victims of liquidity exhaustion.
3. Ethereum's 'Empire of the Sun Set'.
What worries me more is the systemic crisis of Ethereum:
Layer2 rebellion: Base chain's daily active users surged 300% in three months, while the mainnet has become a gas fee ATM.
Developers fleeing.: Solana's daily transaction volume of 65 million is over three times that of the Ethereum ecosystem.
If the Pectra upgrade (end of July) is delayed again, ETH may fall into a technical bear market.
Personal strategy from Shen Ce.
Rebound entry points: BTC $99,800-101,200 buy orders (stop-loss at $98,500), target $104,000.
Hedging tool: Buy BTC $100,000 put options (hedge against black swans).
Discipline: Position ≤ 5%, take partial profits immediately if profits exceed 10%.
The last alarm before the storm.
While everyone is focused on the tariff bomb on July 9, a more lethal nuclear-level event is approaching - the results of the Federal Reserve's annual stress test will be announced on July 12!
Once the liquidity flaws in the US banking system are exposed, the chain reaction will make this crash seem like child's play.
When most people are focused on the candlestick chart,
smart investors have already locked in wealth on the edge of policy.
Follow me, be the knife that cuts the big players!
#特朗普马斯克分歧 #下一任美联储主席人选 $BTC $ETH
