7.2 Market Brief｜Tariff Negotiations Approaching Key Milestone, Market Under Short-term Pressure

Good morning, the market trend basically aligns with our previous expectations —

As the Trump tariff negotiations approach their deadline, the market has shown significant volatility.

1. Core Turning Point Signal: Escalation of Tariff Conflict

Last night, Trump announced: no longer considering an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline,

July 9 is the final deadline, only one week remaining.

He threatened to directly terminate negotiations with countries like Japan,

and initiate punitive tariffs.

After the news was released, the market quickly turned down.

In the short term, tariff uncertainty remains the primary factor suppressing risk assets.

2. The 'Big and Beautiful' Bill Passed, Long-term Variables Lurking

Another heavyweight event:

With a crucial vote from Vance, the Senate passed the 'Big and Beautiful' bill,

currently awaiting a vote in the House of Representatives.

Core impacts of the bill:

Increase in fiscal deficit by $3.3 trillion

Tax cuts favoring the wealthy

Reduction in healthcare coverage, affecting over 12 million people

What does this mean?

U.S. credit is once again under scrutiny:

Debt expansion, unsustainable finances, increased credit rating risk.

The trend of foreign capital reducing U.S. debt holdings is strengthening:

Safe-haven funds will seek new outlets — including gold and Bitcoin.

Long-term bullish for BTC narrative:

The value of digital assets as a 'decentralized reserve' is further highlighted.

3. Market Rhythm Judgment: Cautious in the Short Term, Focused in the Medium Term

Although the medium to long-term logic is somewhat bullish, short-term risks cannot be ignored:

U.S. stocks may experience a phase adjustment due to policy uncertainty,

BTC is easily influenced by U.S. stock sentiment; it may test an important support level (100,000) again as July 9 approaches.

4. Strategy Suggestions

Short-term defense as the main focus:

If BTC falls below the 100,000 mark, consider gradually building positions in mainstream coins, avoiding chasing highs.

Do not consider altcoins for now:

Current mainstream assets have stronger pressure resistance, and altcoins need to wait for the market to stabilize further for a rebound.

Summary:

The current market is in a tight zone of news game, direction remains unclear.

We recommend maintaining position flexibility, focusing on observing trends before and after July 9.

Before the trend becomes clear, act cautiously and strictly control risks.