Core Trend Analysis

1. Short-term (7 days) volatility characteristics

Small holders (<1 BTC):

Ultra-small (shrimp) and small (crabs) combined increased their holdings by 189 coins, ending the previous continuous reduction trend. Among them, crabs increased their holdings by 100 coins in a single day on July 1, possibly influenced by short-term price fluctuations, with small funds slightly flowing back.

Medium-low holders (1-10 BTC):

A total decrease of 448 coins, continuing the reduction trend, but the magnitude has expanded compared to last week (-247 coins), indicating that medium-sized retail investors are still in a wait-and-see mode or exiting the market.

Medium-high holders (10-100 BTC):

Significantly increased their holdings by 15,463 coins, the largest increase across all levels, with a single-day increase of 41 coins on July 2, continuing the trend of proactive accumulation, possibly related to institutional funds diversifying through medium addresses.

Large and ultra-large holders (100+ BTC):

Large holders (whales) decreased their holdings by 6,502 coins, mainly affected by a single-day crash of 8,625 coins on July 1, possibly due to short-term portfolio adjustments or compliance sell-offs by some institutions; ultra-large holders (humpback whales) decreased by 6,445 coins, but saw a surge of 8,460 coins in a single day on July 1, indicating high-frequency trading behavior by ultra-large institutions and intense long-short battles.

2. Medium-term (30 days) volatility characteristics

Small holders (<1 BTC):

A cumulative decrease of 2,588 coins, still in an outflow state, but the magnitude has narrowed compared to last week (-5,096 coins), indicating that the selling pressure from retail investors has eased.

Medium-low holders (1-10 BTC):

Decreased by 9,261 coins, further expanding from last week (-8,938 coins), showing a clear long-term exit trend.

Medium-high holders (10-100 BTC):

Increased holdings by 28,841 coins, continuing to be the main force in the medium term, consistent with the short-term trend, validating this group's long-term optimism about the market.

Large and ultra-large holders (100+ BTC):

Large holders (whales) decreased their holdings by 6,228 coins, with medium-term performance aligning with short-term reductions, possibly influenced by macroeconomic policies; ultra-large holders (humpback whales) increased their holdings by 1,400 coins, ending the previous continuous reduction, indicating that ultra-large institutions may start to accumulate on dips, which requires attention to future sustainability.