When the ten-year cold wallet awakens, every drop of blood flowing in the market is the tear of regret from the leveraged bulls.
Today's crypto market has been completely choked by two heavy on-chain news: Mt. Gox cold wallet suddenly moved 14,000 BTC (solid data), this huge asset that has been dormant for ten years is beginning to transfer to creditors, and historical experience shows that at least 30% will directly flood the market; to make matters worse, the German government today transferred another 2,500 BTC, the continuous selling by the national team is like a dull knife cutting flesh. The double bearish news caused ETH's hourly chart to directly show a 'high-altitude dive'.
The technical aspect starkly reveals the slaughter scene:
The 50% Fibonacci support level should be 2445.97
The 23.6% key watershed accurately corresponds to 2404.55
In the chart, it can be seen that after a massive volume broke through the 2450 defense line on July 1, the bulls did not even put up a decent resistance. The current price is weakly hovering around 2411, and every rebound to the 2404-2415 range (purple resistance zone) is immediately smashed. MACD has a second death cross below the zero axis, and RSI is pressed against the edge of the 35 oversold zone—typical 'death spiral' trend.
What's even more deadly is the contract battlefield: the right-side liquidation statistics show that 1.35M USD long positions have just been annihilated, and the perpetual funding rate has dropped to -0.042% (a sign of a short party celebration). This scene reminds me of the night before the Luna collapse—when all technical supports turned to paper, the only logic in the market is panic infection.
Operational strategy is more important than technical indicators! Three key observation points:
2367.53 (0.0% Fibonacci) is the last line of defense, breaking it will trigger a stampede;
Only a breakout above 2415 can alleviate the downward trend;
The specific compensation schedule of Mt. Gox is the key turning point of the market.
When the German government wallet still has 47,000 BTC to be sold, and the creditors of Mentougou may dump at any time, would you dare to catch a falling knife at 2380? Friends who are bottom fishing, please set your stop-loss, and share your defense levels in the comments!
This morning, when the German wallet had unusual movements, my on-chain monitor alerted me 12 seconds faster than the market! The 2404 watershed resistance was accurately verified—follow me, before the scythe swings, you are already in the safe zone! Want to delve deeply into the crypto world but can’t find direction? Want to quickly get started and master the information gap? Click on my avatar to follow me! Real-time sharing of first-hand information and in-depth analysis, precise tips for buy and sell points, and grasp crypto market dynamics at the first moment!