Source: Uweb Live Private Class
Content organization: Peter_Techub News
On the evening of July 2 at 20:30, the highly anticipated Uweb live sharing class 173 was broadcast as scheduled. The theme of this session was 'NASDAQ New High, Will Bitcoin Break New Highs Too?', presented by Uweb Principal Yu Jianing together with on-chain data analyst Linda Zhengzheng, offering the audience a deep analysis of market trends in the crypto space. From an industry perspective, this live broadcast combined on-chain data, macroeconomic and policy analysis, providing substantial insights for investors. Linda's precise on-chain indicators analysis and unique market judgments perfectly integrated theory and practice, delivering an enlightening presentation for the audience, marking a significant milestone in the Web3 investment field.
Weekly report interpretation: BTC market sees bulls and bears in battle, poised for change
Shao Feng analyzes the BTC market trend in the weekly report interpretation, pointing out that the current period is a critical choice period, with on-chain data 'disconnected', and mixed bullish and bearish signals. The global momentum radar shows that BTC fell below cooling last week, with a recovery trend emerging, accompanied by rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, improving market sentiment. The on-chain slaughter curve indicates profit-taking breaking a one-and-a-half-month downward trend, with capital enthusiasm recovering, possibly welcoming a rebound in the short term, but the lagging on-chain data limits predictions, needing to observe whether profits continue next week. If profits rise, prices may increase; if they fall back, it could be a false breakthrough, facing retracement risks. The liquidity pulse chart reveals a stablecoin issuance of 2 billion USD, but inflows into exchanges have not significantly increased, with limited volume recovery and weak purchasing power. The UTXO energy band reveals that the concentration of high-position chips has reached 26%, with historical highs indicating a possible surge or drop within a week or two. **NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)** remains in a downward channel, with short-term holders' profit rates not breaking through, suggesting retracement risks; if it falls below 98,000, it may drop quickly. Off-chain data shows that BTC ETF net inflow is 2.21 billion USD, reflecting institutional optimism, similar to the sideways period from July to September last year; the bullish thinking remains unchanged. However, the fear and greed index is relatively low, and rate cut expectations have dropped from 22%, with the market tending toward rationality. Macroeconomic data on July 2-3 (unemployment rate, non-farm employment) may become a turning point. Shao Feng suggests paying attention to macroeconomic data and on-chain trends to comprehensively judge market direction.
Opening sharing: Web3 moving towards 'Max Adoption'
Principal Yu Jianing opens the analysis of the current state of the Web3 industry, presenting 'cold inside, hot outside': insufficient funds and low confidence within the circle, while enthusiasm is high outside, with traditional finance (such as banks, brokerages) frequently inviting to share, increasing industry attention. He mentioned that at the ETH CT in Cannes, Robinhood released a US stock on-chain solution, realizing 24/7 trading through tokenization and perpetual contracts, signaling new flows and capital entry. Yu Jianing predicts that by 2030, the market value of stablecoins may reach 37 trillion USD, supporting a total market value of Web3 assets at 30 trillion, with BTC possibly accounting for over 10 trillion; in the short term, this year's market value may surge to 5 trillion. This is currently a critical accumulation period, possibly the last wave of the bull market, advising to maintain an active market mentality, embrace ETF securitization and RWA tokenization innovation, and remain vigilant of future risks. He asks Linda: Why hasn't BTC broken through while the NASDAQ reached new highs? Will it follow the NASDAQ's peak, or will it correct independently? How does market differentiation affect BTC and digital asset trends? What is the significance of the sideways trend?
Why hasn't BTC broken through with the NASDAQ reaching new highs?
Linda Zhengzheng analyzes the reasons why the NASDAQ reached new highs but BTC did not break through:
Market logic differences: US stocks are driven by macroeconomics, PCE inflation, and interest rate cut expectations, while BTC is influenced by supply and demand, speculative sentiment, regulation, and on-chain capital flow, related but not completely synchronized.
Capital diversion: The hype around stocks (Circle, Coinbase) and the high liquidity of US stocks attract funds that could flow into BTC ETFs, similar to MEME stock sentiment speculation, leading to BTC sideways movement and altcoins plummeting.
Short-term trend: The stablecoin bill expectations on July 4 may push BTC to break through the resistance level of 110,300, or reach the previous high of 118,000, but due to profit-taking pressure and negative factors (such as Trump's tariff delays, Japan's interest rate hikes), it may retrace to 98,800 (short-term holders' cost basis) or the dense area of 93,000-96,500.
Long-term outlook (until 2026): The stablecoin market value may increase from 240 billion to 700 billion, leveraging a buying power of 14 trillion, pushing BTC above 150,000 USD, trending towards gold market value narratives. Rate cuts (1-2 times in September or December, or significant rate cuts in 2026) will gently or dramatically raise BTC, with institutional control (the US controls about 5 million BTC, accounting for 1/3 of liquidity) strengthening pricing power.
Suggestions: Short-term profit-taking at 110,000 or bottom buying between 98,000-93,000, long-term holding for price rise.
Circle Valuation Logic and Market Performance
Yu Jianing inquires about the reasons for Circle's stock price surge, reasonable valuation range, and whether it is speculative trading. Linda analyzes: Circle (USDC issuer, the first stablecoin in US stocks) IPO on the first day rose from 31 USD to nearly 300 USD, with a market value exceeding 60 billion USD, a trading volume of 46 million shares, then halved to 180 USD by the end of June, currently a market value of about 50 billion USD, clearly overvalued. Reasons:
Profit model limitations: Circle relies on USDC reserves in government bonds for profit, with an annual yield of 2.7% (lower than government bonds at 4.2%), needing to share over 60% of profits with Coinbase, resulting in significant cash flow pressure.
Insufficient market share: USDC accounts for 25%-40% of the stablecoin market, far below USDT's 70%, lacking a leading position, making it difficult to support high valuations.
Intensifying competition: Traditional institutions (such as Mastercard, Amazon) plan to issue stablecoins, weakening Circle's market share.
Valuation forecast: If the stablecoin market expands to a trillion, and Circle's market share increases while developing new profit models, the market value could sustain at 40-60 billion USD, with stock prices of 130-150 USD as the bottom, peaking at 250-300 USD (by 2030). If competition intensifies, regulation tightens, or interest rate cuts weaken profits, the market value may fall back to 20 billion USD, and stock prices drop to double digits. Linda believes the current valuation bubble is large and needs to return to rationality.
Can ETH break 4,000?
Yu Jianing focuses on ETH trends and the influence of ETH reserve companies similar to MicroStrategy. Linda analyzes based on on-chain data:
In the past: In March, it was recommended to allocate 80% BTC and 20% ETH for large positions, and fully invest in ETH for small positions, as the rebound strength was greater than that of BTC. She went long on ETH at 1,482 USD, which rose to 2,852 USD by April 18, based on MVRV, Pressing Bands, and the upgrade benefits on May 8, judging that 1,800 USD was the bottom, successfully predicting a rebound to 2,500 USD.
Short-term: Options data inversion (mid-term bearish options buying exceeds long-term), profit supply at 54% not reaching the bottom (below 50%), indicating a retracement to 1,800-2,000 USD (chip gap area), suggesting bottom buying near 1,900 USD.
Mid-term: Since April, whales (holding over 1,000 ETH) have increased their positions, with a single-day inflow of 871,000 ETH in mid-June, indicating high control. However, Bitfinex sold a million ETH, along with Blackrock buying 80 million USD in ETH, reflecting the main force raising prices to sell, with a short-term retracement possibly down to 1,800 USD.
Long-term: ETH benefits from stablecoins, RWA, and DeFi (Aave, Uniswap) support, with high recognition in traditional finance, bullish in the future but requires more funding to absorb.
Suggestions: Short-term wait and see, mid-term bottom buying, long-term bullish; breaking 4,000 requires more capital inflow.
Interest rate cuts, quantitative trading, and altcoin opportunities
Yu Jianing inquires about the pace of interest rate cuts, quantitative trading, and altcoin logic. Linda responds:
Interest rate cut pace: A rate cut is likely in September 2025 or within the year, ruling out a delay until March-May 2026. The impact of rate cuts on risk assets is limited, while the stablecoin bill is more directly beneficial for BTC and ETH.
Quantitative trading: Fund quant requires a threshold of 100,000 USD, with annual returns of 10%-50%, strategies include funding rate arbitrage, spread arbitrage, and CTA neutral strategies, but returns are difficult during low volatility. Ordinary people can try grid trading, suitable for the BTC main uptrend after a period of volatility (80% of the time), requiring accurate interval judgment, primarily going long, and being wary of reversal risks.
Altcoins: General upward trends are difficult; benefits are concentrated in DeFi (Aave, Uniswap) and stablecoin sectors (like USD1, Lister), as US stocks require on-chain lending liquidity. Independent research is necessary; it's not a wealth code.
In-house sharing: On-chain data analysis and BTC/ETH trends
Linda shares the on-chain analysis framework:
MVRV: The overall loss of ETH in April (MVRV at a low level) indicates a bottom, which later rose to 2,500 USD, historically validated.
Whale holdings: Movements of BTC and ETH whales (holding over 10 million BTC or 1,000 ETH) reflect trends; reductions in March and December last year triggered profit-taking, while in April, contrary to the trend, they increased holdings confirming the bottom.
Cost basis for short-term holders: Average cost for buyers within 155 days, BTC falling below 98,800 triggered retail selling; multiple verifications of bull and bear transitions in 2021 and 2024, currently a key support.
Chip distribution: BTC dense zones are 93,000-96,000 and 74,000-78,000 for whale entry, with 93,000 being a high point for exchange users. BTC trend: Retracement to 98,800-96,500 in July-August, rate cuts in September pushing to 130,000-150,000, and if significant rate cuts and stablecoins reach a market value of 2 trillion in 2026, BTC may exceed 200,000. ETH trend: Short-term retracement to 1,800-2,000 USD, mid-term bullish due to whale accumulation and favorable DeFi and RWA factors.
Uweb Course and Activity Schedule - Teacher Wei Bin introduces Uweb activities:
Hong Kong Web3 Future Wealth Course (RWA module): July 31 - August 4, 4,999 yuan, first-time single module registration, focusing on RWA and stablecoin investment and financing, with Teacher Meng Yan debuting the RWA token economy theory. Highlights: Detailed explanation of the RWA ecosystem, stablecoin dividends (like Circle, Coinbase annualized 10% wealth management), investment logic for Hong Kong and US stocks (similar to crypto market strategies).
CDA exam: Fully booked on August 30, October is the last chance for certification.
Study tour to the USA: August 17-23, need to rush to apply for a US visa. Wei Bin emphasizes Uweb
Summary and Recommendations
BTC short-term retracement to 98,800-96,500, rate cuts in September may push it to 130,000-150,000, and may exceed 200,000 by 2026; ETH short-term drop to 1,800-2,000 USD, mid-long term bullish; altcoin opportunities focused on DeFi and stablecoin sectors.
Learning suggestions: Short-term profit-taking for BTC at 110,000 or bottom buying between 98,000-93,000, bottom buying ETH around 1,900 USD, long-term holding for price rise, focus on RWA and stablecoin sectors. Participate in Uweb courses, obtain CDA certification, and seize the Web3 'Max Adoption' opportunity.
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