Iran wants to buy the J-10CE; do you say this money on a silver platter shouldn't be taken? I tell you, even if they want to buy, they won't sell it to them. Some say it’s because they fear Israel. Didn't Israel warn a couple of days ago? They said whoever exports weapons to Iran will be retaliated against. I will answer Israel with a saying from Liu Huaqiang to Song Laohu's brother: No one has dared to talk to me like this my whole life.
So why don't they sell the J-10CE to Iran? Let me explain it to you clearly today. Iran has wanted to buy the J-10CE for quite some time, even earlier than Pakistan's interest. Back in 2015, there was an intention to purchase, and it wasn't a small number—150 aircraft. At that time, Iran wanted to exchange oil and natural gas, but was refused, and cash was required. Later, due to Iran's lack of foreign exchange, this matter fell through.
Later, Iran turned to Russia again, still trading resources for equipment. Iran exchanged drones with Russia for Su-35s, with the first order being 26 aircraft. Russia is now deeply mired in the Russia-Ukraine war, and the delivery date has been pushed back repeatedly. As of now, even after the fighting is over, there is still no sign of the Su-35s. Plus, recently the J-10CE became famous in the India-Pakistan conflict, and at this moment, Iran has realized its mistake and is regretting it deeply.
If the J-10CE had been purchased back then, would things be like this today? Currently, Iran's air force mainly consists of Soviet-made MiG-29s and the outdated American F5 and F14 left over from the Pahlavi dynasty. Using these to compete against Israel's fifth-generation F35 is like an old man with a 7384 trying to fight a young Mike Tyson. Therefore, Iran's urgent need for advanced fighter jets is very pressing.
Why doesn't China sell it to them? First of all, Chinese weapons and equipment are not available just because you want to buy them. The export of weapons is completely different from other civilian goods. It is not merely a simple bilateral trade; it involves many factors such as politics and military considerations.
There are several major principles for exporting equipment.
· First of all, no weapons should be exported to countries in a state of war. Although Iran and Israel have now ceased fire, no agreements have been signed, and they remain in a state of war, which does not meet the standards for weapon exports.
· Secondly, political stance must also be considered; you must sit firmly on your position. You can't say you are friendly with China today and then flirt with the U.S. tomorrow. If your stance is not firm, you definitely won't get sold to.
· The last point is that the domestic political landscape must be sufficiently stable. Iran's domestic political situation is currently unstable, with pro-American and anti-American factions in opposition, as well as conflicts between clergy and anti-theocratic groups, resulting in significant uncertainties in the domestic political environment.
There are not many countries in the world that can meet the requirements for exporting equipment besides Pakistan. Although they have earned less money, they have ensured that every weapon export can achieve its purpose and ensured that they will not be passively involved in any disputes, enabling them to independently handle international affairs, being able to advance and retreat.
· In addition to political considerations, there are also military and technical considerations. Every time weapons are exported, it changes the military balance in the region. If you dare to export, you must ensure the ability to win battles, so you must be responsible for the equipment, which is also a responsibility to the purchasing country.
The current stage of weaponry is no longer a time when a single weapon stands out; the advancement of a single weapon does not play any decisive role. It must be a systemic combat platform. The Indian example is the best counterexample, but it cannot be said that their vision is poor; the single items India has purchased are all world-class.
But the problem with multinational manufacturing is that everyone speaks their own language and cannot form a cohesive whole. Simply put, 1+1 does not equal 2; it may even be less than 2. With India as a negative example, during exports, the entire combat platform—from ground-based air defense radars to airborne early warning aircraft, to command centers in the rear, and even to comprehensive battlefield situational awareness data links— the J-10CE is just one node in that chain.
Even if you were given the entire platform, don't forget that the essence of war is still people. No matter how good the weapons and equipment are, if they are not operated by good people, they are just sticks.
Training people requires time to adapt. Taking Pakistan as an example, after Pakistan signed the purchase agreement for the J-10CE with China in 2019, Pakistani pilots began to come in batches for relevant training, which lasted a total of up to 5 years, and this was just for learning the J-10CE.
Don't forget that the Pakistani Air Force was already equipped with locally produced JF-17 fighter jets back in 2017, and in 2010, they were equipped with ZDKO3 early warning aircraft. If you calculate it this way, Pakistan has been adapting to Chinese-made equipment for 15 years. This 15-year period is what led to the explosive combat power in the 2025 India-Pakistan air conflict.
Without accumulating small steps, one cannot reach a thousand miles. One cannot train soldiers for a thousand days only to use them for a moment. Iran's mentality of seeking help at the last minute means that even if they get equipment, it won't be effective. Now that they have been hurt, they remember how good China was. Back then, we pointed out the direction and paved the road for you, and now you regret not acting sooner.
I tell you, now Iran wants to buy the J-10CE, which is akin to a weasel wishing a hen a happy new year—there's no good intentions. Why do I say this? Because they know they can't rely on Russia now, and they want to drag China down with them. Frankly, this is a form of kidnapping; they cannot even meet the requirements for a loyalty oath.
Moreover, Iran's words cannot be trusted. The Russian S-400 was destroyed by Israel while in their possession. Instead of looking for their own reasons, they claim that Russian equipment cannot withstand the test of war. Given the quality of Iranian pilots and the time needed for adaptation, if the J-10CE were delivered to them now, it would also just be a useless stick. Not to mention if they lost in battle; they would still blame us, tarnishing our reputation.
So Iran is not going to get into this muddy water; Iran wants to buy the J-10CE, so prove your worth with strength. When you can prove you are valuable, then we can talk about this matter.
