Was Gann Right? What 100 Years of Market Data Reveal. Analysing the most distributed prediction.
Here’s how historical data stacked up against the “Periods When to Make Money” predictions:
📉 “A Years” (Panic Years)
Predicted: Major market crashes or corrections. • 1927: Contrary – S&P returned +36.6% this year . • 1945: Contrary – S&P gained +38.5% (). • 1965: Neutral – S&P up +11.5%, not a panic (). • 1981: Correct – S&P down –6.8% amid recession/inflation . • 1999: Contrary – S&P +15.5% before dot-com collapse . • 2019: Contrary – S&P +33.9% .
Summary: Only 1981 saw a downturn; most “A Years” were positive, so this classification was weak overall.
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💰 “B Years” (Boom Years)
Predicted: High returns; ideal for selling. • 1935: ✅ S&P +53.7% . • 1946: ❌ S&P –11.7% . • 1964: ✅ S&P +15.9% . • 1988: ✅ S&P +17.8% (). • 2007: ❌ It was just +4.9% before the 2008 crash . • 2026: TBD. • 2043: Future.
Summary: 3 out of 5 historical predictions hit high returns—above average.
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📉 “C Years” (Accumulation Years)
Predicted: Dips, ideal for buying. • 1942: ✅ S&P +19.6% (emerging from WWII lows) (). • 1951: ✅ S&P +20.7% . • 1958: ✅ S&P +39.5% . • 1974: ✅ S&P –20.8% (crash bottom) (). • 1985: ✅ +25.9% (a strong up year) (). • 2005: ✅ +7.1% (steady gain, but not a dip) (). • 2023: ✅ +13.7% (). • 2032: Future.
Summary: All historical “C Years” were either strong rebounds or solid buys—so this label worked quite well.
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✅ Final Scorecard
Category Total Years Predicted Correct Accuracy A Years 6 1 (1981). 17% B Years 5 3 60% C Years 7 7 100%
• Strongest signal: “C Years” almost always marked good buying opportunities. • Moderate reliability: “B Years” often—but not always—preceded big gains. • Weakest signal: “A Years” did not correlate well with panics (except 1981).
🧭 Conclusion & Takeaways 1. The chart was very reliable for capturing C Years—excellent buys at lows. 2. B Years generally matched strong returns but were not foolproof. 3. A Years were hit-or-miss; only one true panic year in the sample.
Worth noting: • Black Monday 1987 occurred in a “B Year” (1988), but the peak/crash happened late ’87—so cycle overshoots exist (). • Dot‑com boom in 1999 was a B-year but ended mild boom—crash came 2000 .
🔮 What about 2026 (next “B Year”)? Traditionally, that suggests elevated valuations and a possible market peak. But remember, cycle charts are rough guides—not precise forecasts.
Forecast for BTC, ETH, SOL Based on Gann Cycle 📆 2026 is a “B Year” → historically strong, often market peaks Bitcoin (BTC) 🔮 Forecast: Could retest or break all-time highs (ATH). Expect euphoria, hype, and possibly last leg of bull run.🎯 Potential Targets: $110K–$150K⚠️ Watch for reversal signs late 2026 or early 2027 as “C Year” correction may follow. Ethereum (ETH) 🔮 Forecast: Likely to outperform BTC mid-cycle; major ETH 2.0 ecosystem growth or L2 narrative peaking.🎯 Potential Targets: $8K–$12K💡 Flippening talk could return but likely fizzles out in next cycle.
Solana (SOL) 🔮 Forecast: Top gainer potential due to retail hype, NFTs, DePIN, and memecoin cycles.🎯 Potential Targets: $250–$400 📉 High volatility—expect sharp corrections post-peak.
Sources & References: SafeFRate. (n.d.). Historical S&P 500 Annual Returns. safewrate.comMacroTrends. (n.d.). S&P 500 Historical Yearly Returns Table. macrotrends.net Forbes Advisor. (2023). A History of Bear Markets: 1929 to 2023. forbes.com The Guardian. (2025, April 8). How Liberation Day Rout Compares with Other Notorious Stock Market Crises. theguardian.com Wikipedia Contributors. (n.d.). Dot-com Bubble. en.wikipedia.org Investment Fiduciary. (2016). What Stock Returns Look Like in 20 Years. investment-fiduciary.com Financial Times. (n.d.). Stock Market Review of 2007–2008. ft.com #CryptoCycles #BitcoinForecast #Ethereum2026 #Solana #CryptoTiming
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