Bitcoin has spent nearly 2 years in range, with just 36 days of expansion driving all meaningful price movement.
The current 195-day consolidation is the longest in Cycle 4, stalling momentum despite prior breakout bursts.
A potential breakout zone is projected for late 2025, as Bitcoin trades between $10,000 and $113,000.
Bitcoin is experiencing its longest consolidation phase in Cycle 4, 195 days of sideways price movement since December 18, 2024. The broader trend remains slow and grueling. Over the last two years, most gains occurred during brief price bursts totaling only 36 days.
Consequently, Bitcoin has spent nearly two full years in sideways action, forming the slowest cycle to date. Price ranges dominate the trend, while expansion phases remain limited and short-lived. If expansion bursts are removed, the price trend flattens dramatically. The adjusted chart shows a continuous sideways grind with lower lows throughout this entire cycle.
Consolidations Dominate as Price Expansion Shrinks
Bitcoin's price behavior splits between extended consolidations and sharp expansion bursts. In early 2023, prices jumped in two bursts of four and one day. These were followed by a 41-day consolidation. A 29-day expansion next, leading to a prolonged 192-day range into November. From there, a brief three-day surge broke the stagnation.
Source: Cryptocon
Between November 2023 and January 2024, the price expanded for 43 days before entering a 62-day range. A 5-day burst resumed the rally. Soon after, Bitcoin entered one of its longest range periods — 238 days — between February and October 2024. Moreover, the cycle remained consistent, alternating between long stagnation and short rallies.
2025 Faces Uncertainty as Breakout Awaits
Late 2024 saw a modest three-day price push, followed by another 38-day surge. However, 2025 opened with a fresh 195-day range. During this time, multiple short bursts lasted between two and three days. The pattern held, but without sustained momentum. The current chart shows prices ranging between $10,000 and $113,000.
Additionally, the image includes a green projection box for late 2025, suggesting potential breakout territory. However, no fixed target or timeline accompanies this section. The possibility of an imminent expansion remains open.
A total range time has reached 1 year and 363 days. Total expansion time sits at 5.76 months. The data illustrates a cycle shaped by hesitation, not momentum. Besides expansion phases, most of the market has trended sideways. Hence, the breakout expected in 2025 may become the critical turning point in Cycle 4.
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