What Could Push Jerome Powell to Cut Rates?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is holding off on cutting interest rates — but here’s what might change that:

🔹 Tariffs & Inflation

Powell expects new tariffs to cause a temporary spike in inflation.

🗣 “If we make a mistake, people will pay the cost for a long time.”

🔹 June CPI Report Is Critical

• A strong reading (≥0.2%) could delay any cuts.

• A soft print (like May’s 0.1%) might open the door to a July rate cut.

🔹 Labor Market as a Wild Card

• Unemployment is low (4.2%), but cracks are showing:

– Slower hiring

– Rising jobless claims

– More people collecting unemployment

📅 Next Fed meeting: July 29–30

➡️ If inflation cools or jobs data weakens, a rate cut may come sooner.

#interestrates #USEconomy #MacroUpdate