In the crypto world, filled with wealth creation myths and sudden bankruptcies, a 95-born trader with the ID 'If I don't understand' has written his own legend through wisdom and effort—transitioning from traditional trade to the crypto space, topping the contract leaderboard in nine months, and earning ten million USD. He provides a highly impactful and reference-worthy case for countless participants floating in the market.
Recently, "If I don't understand" (@butaidongjiaoyi) was invited to the OKX Singapore office for a face-to-face exchange with host Mia 米粒儿 (@mia_okx), and this article summarizes the core dialogue.
Transitioning from traditional trade to the crypto world, he once went from 'digging for a million' to 'returning to square one overnight.'
Born in 1996, 'If I don't understand' initially was not a trader but a cross-border e-commerce entrepreneur running an Amazon store. In 2020, the frenzy of SHIB and the rise of AXS (Axie Infinity) opened a crack, allowing him to glimpse the magic of the crypto world. From then on, his life trajectory became closely intertwined with this 24/7 market.
Unlike many impulsive speculators, his entry is marked by the rigor and diligence of a businessman. During the day, he handles the daily operations of his store; from 7 PM to 2 AM, he immerses himself in the study of on-chain projects. His starting capital was insignificant—only using 7,000 RMB to purchase AXS, he unexpectedly received several times the return, opening the door to a new world.
After tasting the sweet fruit, 'If I don't understand' officially embarked on the 'on-chain wealth mining' journey with about 30,000 to 50,000 RMB in capital. He accurately seized the GameFi wave of 2021, an era that gamified DeFi financial models. He did not settle for superficial engagement but spent months playing nearly all GameFi projects on the market, deeply researching their economic models and community gameplay. This extreme dedication brought substantial returns. In projects like Radio Caca, BinaryX, Cryptominers, and Farmer World, he turned tens of thousands of RMB into his first 1 million through smart investment. This capital not only accumulated wealth but also represented his first significant victory in validating his logic through deep research.
However, holding millions in cash has changed his mindset as a young person who just graduated two or three years ago. In May 2022, the market experienced a drastic change, with Ethereum plummeting from 3,700 USD to 800 USD, the severity even surpassing the '519 Black Swan' event. In the face of market trends, he kept increasing his positions, betting on a rebound, attempting to use capital to counteract the overall market downturn, with predictable results. In less than two months, his asset position withdrew over 95%, and millions in cash nearly evaporated, returning to square one overnight. This explosive loss became the most profound and painful lesson in his trading career.
"Working harder in reality is the only way to truly bring liquidity to Web3." After experiencing liquidation, he did not fall into despair but chose to re-engage in internet entrepreneurship. Relying on the stable income from his main business, he gradually accumulated funds and eventually made a comeback. When re-entering the blockchain market, he adhered to one core principle: invest with sufficient net worth, with at least tens of thousands of RMB as the entry capital, and do not go into debt, otherwise, it would change his investment mindset.
"One must respect the market; nothing is impossible." From then on, his trading style completely changed—no longer guessing the market's highs and lows but focusing on money that can be earned through rigorous strategies and clear logic, and calmly accepting all possible market situations. From that pain, "If I don't understand" began a true transformation. He seized the BRC-20 inscriptions and the subsequent MEME coin wave in 2023, achieving a second remarkable capital accumulation and obtaining his first A8 result. This time, he was no longer a blindly confident gambler but a hunter with clear strategies and tight logic. His largest on-chain profit was made when others were shorting; he went long on neiro against the trend. At the same time, he also deployed Neiro on-chain, bringing about approximately 5 million USD in profits just from the spot section. Reflecting on the initial motivation for buying, it was not merely for short-term arbitrage but rather his admiration for the community consensus that Neiro represented.
"Why do I choose to go long on it? It's because when evaluating every trade, I refer to some 'benchmark assets'. At that time, projects like BONK and BOME that launched on spot had their FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) around 1 billion USD, some even higher, reaching 2 billion or 3 billion. So, for a project like neiro, which also has a good IP, I believe it is entirely possible for it to achieve a similar benchmark valuation. Therefore, after it launched, despite many choosing to short, I remained resolute in going long, and indeed I captured its rise to a 1 billion USD market cap. This was my first significant profit in the MEME sector." He shared. After that, he shorted PNUT and TRUMP, obtaining more results.
Public data shows that in the past 9 months, his contract trading profits exceeded 10 million USD. In June of this year, a single ETH trade hit a profit of 7.5 million USD.
Ten Million Dollar Trading System: Only Earn Money from 'Consensus', Don't Gamble with Technology.
In the view of 'If I don't understand', trading is not an esoteric science but a system that can be deconstructed and learned. The core of this system is not chasing the cutting-edge technology or the most complex indicators but returning to the essence of business and human nature—consensus. He proved this seemingly simple yet profoundly deep trading philosophy with ten million USD in real trading results.
He pointed out the underlying logic of buying coins: "A token rises not because of how impressive its technology is, but because 'someone believes it is worth that much.'" He believes the core task of a trader is to become a keen 'consensus hunter'—constantly seeking, judging, and verifying where powerful consensus can be generated, gathered, and ignited in the market. Technology, narrative, and community are merely tools and carriers for forming consensus.
How to discover the seeds of consensus? 'If I don't understand' answers: follow the liquidity. He broadened his perspective from within Crypto to the entire macro economy. "Every era has its opportunities. In the early years, it was investing in factories, later it was buying houses. By the time I graduated, those opportunities were rare. I saw money flowing toward crypto, so I knew the opportunity was here." This logic also applies within Crypto. He closely tracks those paradigm projects capable of breaking liquidity bottlenecks and reaching a market cap of 1 billion USD while monitoring the subsequent second and third waves they trigger. Because these projects define new wealth effects, funds and attention will naturally follow.
His rise perfectly exemplifies his method of switching tracks. He analyzed the inner logic of three major waves: the first wave (GameFi): the gamification of DeFi. He believes the essence of GameFi is packaging the tedious process of 'earning APR through DeFi staking' into a 'money-making' game, essentially DeFi 2.0. Through in-depth research of its economic model, he achieved initial capital accumulation.
Second Wave (Inscriptions/BRC-20): Short-term 'Assistance Economics'. He summarizes its essence as a 'Ponzi model' reliant on 'more people knowing, more funds entering' to sustain it. However, he sharply points out its fatal flaw: unlike ICOs, the fees of inscriptions go to miners, and miners have no obligation to pump the price. This makes it a short-term wealth creation opportunity. Therefore, after making ten times profit on Avalanche inscriptions, he quickly exited the market.
Third Wave (MEME): The FOMO sentiment catalyzed by Solana. He believes MEME shares a logic similar to inscriptions, belonging to the transmission of attention economics, and is a continuation of the wealth effect on the Solana chain, further catalyzed by platforms like Pump.fun. His ten million profits were realized during this phase. A classic battle was on the neiro project, where he referenced MEME projects like BONK that had reached a market cap of 1 billion USD as 'benchmark assets' and, despite widespread pessimism, firmly went long, ultimately capturing a significant surge as it approached a 1 billion USD market cap.
'If I don't understand' is not only skilled at going long, but the logic of going short is equally clear and deadly. He believes the best time to short is derived from a precise grasp of market sentiment. The core logic is: when a project experiences a frenzied surge without any substantial pullback, reaching an unreasonable height that completely contradicts its fundamentals, it will inevitably undergo a brutal washout process to clear the early profit-taking positions. He uses PNUT and TRUMP as examples to explain his shorting decisions. These two projects experienced strong short-term surges after launching on all mainstream exchanges but showed no signs of washout. In his view, this 'upward movement without pullback' itself is the most dangerous signal, providing a high profit-loss ratio and certainty for low-leverage shorts.
From novice to expert: A 4-step operational manual for conquering the world with just a smartphone.
"My experiences cannot be replicated, but my insights, patterns, and methodologies for seizing opportunities can be shared." 'If I don't understand' distilled his experiences into a highly actionable practical manual. The core of this manual emphasizes building one's own trading system through systematic learning and practice while ensuring that risks are controllable.
Can only be 'growing alone in the wilderness'. He firmly believes that the blockchain industry is destined to be a self-learning process because the information iteration is too rapid, and no one can teach you hand-in-hand. He himself gained valuable firsthand experience through diligent study from 7 PM to 2 AM every night, personally practicing and incurring losses. He provides two efficient information filtering methods: first, the KOL screening method. Instead of blindly following massive information, find those KOLs who can discover and promote potential projects early. Following them is equivalent to letting them help you complete the first round of information screening, greatly enhancing efficiency. For example, the hippopotamus from the Thai zoo is one he found through KOL. Second, the community deep dive method. Delving into project communities on Discord, Telegram, etc., is the core of judging a project's vitality. A truly vibrant community will have real discussions, timely Q&As, and positive emotions. Conversely, if a community is filled with bots and paid posters, it indicates that its consensus foundation is false.
How to 'position when no one is paying attention, and exit when the crowd is clamoring'? This ancient investment adage has been given clear, actionable signal definitions: 1) Regarding precise entry signals. When you see a project where the team is consistently active on social media, the roadmap is clear, and product features are gradually being implemented, but the general market has not recognized its enormous potential, that is the best early entry opportunity. 2) Regarding clear exit signals: when a project's popularity is widely recognized in the market, FOMO sentiment erupts completely, and media and communities are discussing it, with its market cap already matching or even surpassing similar benchmark projects, it indicates that risk is accumulating, and one should consider exiting in batches. 3) Exclusive auxiliary indicators: he also observes some macro-related indicators as 'canaries'; for example, the stock price changes of USDC issuer Circle can serve as a reference for judging overall market sentiment or expectations. News, in more discussion, serves two purposes: one is to help you judge expectations, and the other is to enable you to defend.
Preserving principal is essential to have the qualification for a comeback—this is the highest principle he distilled from the pain of losses. He emphasizes never to let one's entire position bear immense risk, and always retain 30% to 50% of the principal, which is the 'revolutionary spark' for making a comeback in the next cycle. He provides a tiered strategy for position management: 1) Small funds (within tens of thousands of RMB): can be more aggressive, such as fully investing in the Meme track but must diversify across different tokens. Also, it is best not to hold more than 1% of a single project's total amount to avoid being targeted and washed out by project parties or major funds.
2) Large funds: Safety is always the top priority. He clearly states that he generally does not exceed 100,000 to 200,000 USD in positions when dealing with altcoin-related contracts. Because once the amount exceeds this level, market liquidity becomes an issue, and your position can easily be calculated for liquidation costs by the market makers on the opposite side, making it susceptible to precise targeting. He recommends that a significant portion of large funds be allocated for periodic trading or quantitative strategies during volatile markets.
3) General position building rhythm ('quarter position' strategy): This is a method that balances offense and defense in position building. First, invest 25% of the funds to enter; if the trend does not align with expectations, then use another 25% to add positions at a more ideal location; the remaining 50% should be kept as a strategic reserve, which must be retained until market pressure is completely released or a highly certain opportunity arises.
Moreover, he believes that traders must master the 'universal language' of trading, which includes basic technical indicators such as candlestick patterns, MACD, KDJ, and RSI. However, he also emphasizes that these can only serve as auxiliary tools. On top of that, he has developed his own exclusive principles and strategies.
He quantifies the abstract 'market sentiment' or 'market feel' into an observable metric—'momentum'. For example: when the US stock market opens, if Bitcoin rises by 0.1%, and Ethereum rises by 0.5% at the same time, it indicates that Ethereum's momentum is very strong; conversely, if Ethereum falls instead of rising, the momentum is weak. By observing the responsive reactions of different assets within a trend cycle, he can more accurately grasp the strength of market sentiment.
To achieve better costs and higher profit-loss ratios, he strongly recommends using limit orders instead of market orders. For example, for long positions, he adopts a 'Black Swan order flow'. In a state of extreme market panic, he places limit orders at pre-calculated key technical support levels or psychological support levels to catch those 'bloodied chips' that have been irrationally sold off. For short positions, he places limit orders at key resistance levels. If the price strongly breaks through and stabilizes at that position, he decisively cuts losses; but as long as the price fails to break through, the potential return of this trade will far exceed the risk of stopping losses.
The endgame of trading: slow wealth is king, an inner cultivation against human nature.
When trading escalates from technique to philosophy, the ultimate test is no longer the models or tools but the trader's understanding of human nature, wealth, and self. 'If I don't understand' ultimately circles back to the core of this 'life-and-death' game—a journey of inner cultivation that goes against human nature.
He believes successful traders may be two completely different extremes: one is extreme greed, and the other is extreme prudence. He classifies himself as the latter, but this prudence is not conservativeness. His choice is to maintain prudence in daily trading but to exercise necessary greed at critical moments of high certainty.
"If you don't go all in, you won't get such results at all," he admits. But this 'going all in' is not mindless gambling; it is a full commitment to oneself after completing all logical reasoning and risk assessment. Currently, this heavy position operation tends to favor spot trading, while contracts are only used in two scenarios: short-term capturing liquidity gaps or using low leverage below three times for long-term layouts in a larger cycle.
The immense wealth seems not to have changed his life trajectory. He shares that his life has not changed much, constantly reminding himself not to become complacent or engage in unreasonable spending due to his achievements. He still cares about the 'quality' of his spending, is willing to pay for cost-effectiveness, and takes leftovers home when he cannot finish a meal. This restraint regarding material desires and a calm attitude toward life may be the essential foundation that enables him to navigate bull and bear markets while preserving profits.
Facing countless followers, he chose to refuse the seemingly most direct way to monetize—'following trades'. He believes, 'Teaching a person to fish is better than giving them fish.' The following trades model is more like a fund investment, which cannot replicate true trading ability and cannot adapt to each individual's risk preferences and personalities. He prefers to share his analytical methods, thinking patterns, and experiences of failure, hoping to help more people establish their own trading systems and seize opportunities that belong to them.
"My personal experiences certainly cannot be replicated," he recognizes clearly, "but I can share my insights, patterns, and how to seize opportunities, which I believe can help some people capture opportunities that belong to them in the future."
At the end of the interview, he gave his most core and also heaviest advice. He received many private messages from debtors and strongly does not recommend trading with debt.
"Once you have debt, your risk tolerance is very low, but the risk you face is very high." Debt can greatly distort trading mindsets, causing impatience in waiting for opportunities, ultimately collapsing amid normal market fluctuations.
He believes that making money, especially in the trading market, is essentially a process of waiting for opportunities. Patience is the highest virtue.
"As Buffett said, no one wants to get rich slowly. So, you have to go against human nature and be willing to wait for time to make you rich. Slow wealth is king."
This philosophical statement not only summarizes his trading career but also serves as the ultimate reminder to all market participants. In this endless game against greed, fear, and human weaknesses, the final victory belongs to those who can befriend time.
Disclaimer:
This article is for reference only. It represents the author's perspective and does not reflect OKX's position. This article does not intend to provide (i) investment advice or recommendations; (ii) offers or solicitations to buy, sell, or hold digital assets; (iii) financial, accounting, legal, or tax advice. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of such information. Holding digital assets (including stablecoins and NFTs) involves high risks and may fluctuate significantly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you based on your financial situation. Please consult your legal/tax/investment professionals regarding your specific circumstances. You are responsible for understanding and complying with applicable local laws and regulations.
