Bitcoin Ethereum Today's Market Analysis (July 1, 2025)

1. Current Price and Market Trend

Bitcoin is currently trading around **$107,200**. The volatility over the past six trading days has been less than **3%**, showing a low volatility consolidation pattern. The CME Bitcoin futures main contract recently reported **$108,000**, rising slightly by **0.53%** in 24 hours. Support level at $107,379 (short-term key support). Resistance level: $108,771 (if broken, may challenge $110,000). Ethereum is trading at approximately $2,480 today, showing a 'V-shaped reversal' in the past 24 hours, rebounding from a support level of $2,438. The market is overall in a consolidation phase, with the short-term direction depending on the breakout situation of the key resistance zone at $2,500-$2,600. Support level: $2,400-$2,450 (short-term key support). Resistance level: $2,500-$2,600 (if broken, may challenge $2,750-$3,000).

#### **2. Technical Indicator Analysis**

- **RSI (Relative Strength Index)**: Neutral range (not overbought or oversold).

- **MACD**: The momentum bars show no significant divergence, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase.

- **Trading Volume**: Recently, there has been strong buying support in the $2,400-$2,500 range.

- **Fibonacci Retracement**: The current price is under pressure near the 0.382 retracement level ($2,500-$2,600).

2. Technical Indicator Analysis**

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.69 (neutral range, not entering overbought or oversold).

MACD: The momentum bars show no significant divergence, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase.

Trading Volume: Recently, a surge of 14,695 BTC in trading volume was observed near $107,000, indicating strong buying support at this price level.

3. Key Influencing Factors**

Whether Bitcoin can break through $110,000 depends on the following factors:

1. USD Trend: If the US dollar index continues to weaken, it may benefit Bitcoin, but historical data shows that the two are not completely negatively correlated.

2. Inflation Expectations: If the US PCE inflation data rebounds, it may enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a hedging asset.

3. Institutional Fund Inflows: Recently, institutions have been continuously increasing their holdings. If Bitcoin-related ETFs are approved (such as the Grayscale ETF amendment), it may drive further increases.

4. Impact of the S&P 500 Index: If US stocks (especially tech stocks) continue to strengthen, it may drive Bitcoin and other risky assets.

4. Market Sentiment and Forecast

Short-term (July): Historical data shows that Bitcoin has an average increase of 9.1% in July. Some analysts predict it may challenge $116,000 this month.

Medium-term: If it breaks above $110,000, it may further test $115,000-$116,000; if it breaks below support, it may fall back to $102,500-$100,000.

Conclusion:

Today, Bitcoin shows a mild rebound, supported by macro policies, geopolitical easing, and institutional funds, but weakened short-term demand may limit upside potential. Investors need to closely monitor **Fed policies, ETF fund flows, and on-chain data** to assess future trends.

Bitcoin is currently in a stage of consolidation and accumulation, with the short-term direction depending on the **breakout situation of key resistance levels**. If market sentiment improves (such as continued inflows of institutional funds and macro favorable conditions), it may lead to a new round of increases; otherwise, it may continue to maintain range consolidation. It is recommended to focus on breakthrough signals in the **$107,000-$108,700** range.

Ethereum is currently fluctuating below a key resistance zone, with short-term movements depending on the breakout situation at $2,500-$2,600. If the macro environment improves (such as an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts) or a technical breakout occurs, it may usher in a new round of increases; otherwise, it may continue to range consolidate. It is recommended to focus on trading signals in the **$2,400-$2,600** range.

There are many types of investments, and choosing the right one for yourself is very important. There are many paths, and choosing the right guide is crucial. I am Gu Yue, interpreting global economic news, analyzing major trends in global investment, providing daily market trend analysis, and offering you the latest trading strategy ideas, professional investment consulting services, to help you reach the peak of wealth management.

This article only represents personal views, for reference only, and not as a basis for actual operations. Market changes are unpredictable, and profits and losses are self-responsible. #Bitcoin