"Brave ones don't drown in waterfalls, rebounds cure hesitation"—right now SOL is playing with fire on the line between bulls and bears $SOL .
Brothers and sisters, today's SOL script is even more thrilling than a melodrama! However, I am a seasoned investor who has gone through three rounds of bull and bear markets, so let me share some solid insights:
News Aspect: Three undercurrents are surging.
Macroeconomic Negative: Last night's Federal Reserve meeting minutes turned hawkish, with the probability of a rate cut in September falling below 50% (CME data). Bitcoin leads the way in shrinking, and SOL is inevitably being drained.
Ecological Positive: Solana's on-chain DEX trading volume increased by 15% against the trend (DefiLlama real-time data), with institutions like JPEX quietly increasing their SOL futures positions.
Biggest Variable: Mt. Gox will start releasing 140,000 BTC to creditors tonight; if it crashes the market, the entire network will suffer!
Technical Aspect: The watershed is performing a dance on the knife's edge.
Now is the moment of life and death.
The Watershed 148.5 USDT (Fibonacci 50% level) is even more deadly than a high-pressure line.
Bullish Scenario: After stabilizing at 148.5, explode the short positions, first target 152 (7-day chip concentration area), second target 155 (23.6% retracement level).
Bearish Scenario: Effectively breaking below 148.5 triggers a long liquidation, heading straight for 145.8 (61.8% strong support), breaking below sees 142 (7-day new low zone).
Volume Insight: The volume during the morning drop has shrunk (MACD green bars shortened), indicating a lack of ammunition for the bears. I estimate a 70% chance of a rebound here—just like the last month's watershed oscillation on the 25th, SOL surged 18% in two days!
Sentiment: Retail investors are experiencing a mental breakdown.
Bottom-Feeding Group: On-chain whale addresses increased their holdings by 370,000 SOL (checkable on Solscan), as they believe the FTX selling pressure has ended.
Cutting Losses Group: Contract open interest has plummeted by 30%, and leveraged investors were washed out by an early morning spike.
Truth: The Fear and Greed Index has plummeted to 40, which is exactly the golden window for seasoned investors to 'buy the panic'!
Anna's Real Trading Strategy (including deadly lessons).
Yesterday I placed 10% of my position at 149.2 to test the waters, remembering the bloody lesson from 2021: back then, I went all in without waiting for confirmation of the watershed breakout, and ended up watching SOL crash from 260 to 120! This time, I will only add to my position after seeing a real breakout. Key mantra to share: 'Three lines above the watershed, a stable close counts as a breakthrough.'
Do you think the market makers will use the Mt. Gox negative news to break 148.5 after the US stock market opens at 8 PM tonight, causing panic, and then turn around to push the price up to cut the shorts? Share your holdings/trades in the comments!
Market Watching Alert: 22:00 ECB speech + US stock market opening will determine life and death.
Understanding this shrinking doji candlestick = capturing a 15% rebound! Tonight I will teach you to see through the main force's traps step by step!!! Want to delve deeper into the crypto world but can't find direction? Want to quickly master information gaps? Click on my profile and follow me! Real-time sharing of first-hand information and in-depth analysis, precise tips on buying and selling points, grasping crypto dynamics at the first moment!