June 30, 2025 Market Analysis: Macro Benefits Released, Mainstream Coins Experience Volume Contraction and Fluctuation
Today, the cryptocurrency market welcomes several structural benefits: The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has fallen to its lowest point since early June, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September is heating up, and risk assets are getting a repricing opportunity; the "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to be implemented, marking a clearer direction for U.S. crypto regulation; Robinhood has launched a RWA product based on Arbitrum, reinforcing the trend of traditional assets going on-chain. However, the technical indicators remain cautious.
For Bitcoin, it is maintaining high-level fluctuations in the short term, retreating after reaching a high of $1088 yesterday, confirming the previous resistance level. It has currently fallen below the 7-day moving average support, and if it loses the $1055 level, it may further test the $1008 or lower range. Trading volume remains sluggish, and there are no signs of significant capital involvement; operationally, it is still recommended to focus on short positions at high points.
Ethereum is under pressure around the $2520 level, experiencing a pullback that overlaps with the previous box's lower boundary, showing clear selling pressure. Although the lower moving average support is effective, overall trading volume is inactive, and market participants are in a wait-and-see mood. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the $2490–$2520 pressure zone and the $2430–$2460 support zone.
On the altcoin front, some capital inflow has activated the L2 and staking sectors, but the sustainability is insufficient. Spot trading operations are advised to continue observing, waiting for confirmation of volume expansion opportunities.
