Today's Market Analysis Share!
The dual pressure of macro liquidity and regulation constitutes the main downside risk. The closure of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window in July, combined with the SEC's continued delays in approving spot ETFs, creates a "double tightening" effect in policy, directly impacting the valuation of risk assets. In terms of geopolitical issues, the "false ceasefire" status of the conflict in the Middle East exacerbates market uncertainty. As a representative of risk assets, BTC's strong resistance level of $108,000 has been tested repeatedly without success, and the daily "shooting star" and divergence signals clearly indicate the need to be wary of technical pullback risks. Funding data shows that whale addresses have been continuously reducing their holdings in the $107,000-$108,000 range, confirming the rationality of high-level shorting strategies.
Structural opportunities are emerging from the chaos. The implementation of Hong Kong's "Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0" creates regional policy dividends, including the digital asset whitelist system, licensed bank custody services, and a 5 billion HKD innovation fund, which will accelerate the entry of compliant funds. From a technical perspective, ETH's symmetrical triangle consolidation has reached a critical breaking point; if it can break through the $2,480 resistance level, it is expected to revitalize DeFi ecosystem TVL, but continuous attention should be paid to the capital flow of the ETH/BTC trading pair—currently, a net outflow of $120 million in 24 hours indicates that market sentiment remains cautious.
The altcoin market is undergoing a brutal de-bubbling process, and the implementation of the EU MiCA bill accelerates the migration of funds to BTC. The technical characteristic that 85% of coins have fallen below the 50-day moving average confirms the necessity of the "empty position survival rule." On the operational side, BTC should closely monitor the breakout direction of the 1075-1085 pressure zone and the 1065-1055 support range, while ETH should observe the effectiveness of the breakout of the triangle's upper and lower boundaries. Before the regulatory measures are implemented, controlling positions and strictly adhering to stop-losses remain the primary risk control principles.
