Cryptocurrency Market Analysis on July 1
1. Interpretation of Macro News
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has welcomed multiple key positive factors. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has hit a new low since early June, reflecting the market's warming expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which also signifies the beginning of a reevaluation of risk asset values. From a mid-term perspective, this trend provides significant support for the upward movement of the crypto market.
If the US 'Too Big to Fail' bill is successfully implemented, it will become an important turning point for the development of the cryptocurrency industry. This bill will guide the cryptocurrency industry from the previous regulatory grey area toward a clear path of compliant development, which is expected to help the US establish its position as a global compliant cryptocurrency financial center, profoundly reshaping the industry ecosystem.
In addition, Robinhood has launched tokenized stock products based on Arbitrum and plans to build a dedicated L2 network for RWA (real-world assets). This move not only accelerates the deep integration of RWA with on-chain finance but also marks a critical historical node as the cryptocurrency market moves toward 'mainstream asset chain migration,' which may trigger a new round of industry transformation.
2. Technical Analysis in Depth
(1) BTC Trend Analysis
Currently, the BTC market is driven by three persistent and structural macro positives: the decline in US debt yields prompts funds to flow into risk assets; the increasing expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September leads to a weaker dollar index; and Bitcoin ETF funds continue to maintain a small net inflow.
From the K-line technical pattern analysis, BTC is currently in the adjustment phase after a wave of oscillating decline, operating near the three high positions of the second wave rebound at 1085. Although there is a slight increase at the daily level, the volume has not effectively expanded, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment among market participants, and a cautious attitude towards potential tariff policy adjustments. Yesterday, BTC rose to 1088 before retreating, consistent with previous predictions, with the daily line closing as a small bearish candlestick breaking below the 7-day moving average support.
In the short term, the 1055 line has become a key support level. If this level is lost, combined with the negative impact of tariff policies, the price may further test down to 1008, or even the 95 area. At the 4-hour level, BTC rebounded multiple times after testing near 107, but overall trading volume is sluggish, with the K-line having fallen below the moving average system. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in trading volume, and a clear signal of volume expansion should be awaited before determining the direction of the new short-term trend. In terms of intraday trading strategy, focus on shorting opportunities at the upper pressure level of 1078 - 1088, while closely monitoring the support in the 1068 - 1058 region.
(2) ETH Market Analysis
ETH's market activity has significantly increased recently, with an expanded price fluctuation range. The previously mentioned 2520 line has become an important resistance level, as it not only represents a recent high point but is also the bottom area of the box oscillation from the previous month, with dense trading leading to significant selling pressure. Yesterday, it retreated more than 80 points after multiple highs, consistent with expected judgments.
At the daily level, the pressure from the 30-day moving average is evident. ETH has shown significant pullbacks after touching this moving average multiple times. Yesterday's daily line closed with a long lower shadow, reflecting heavy selling pressure above, while showing effective support from the moving average below, with both bulls and bears caught in a wait-and-see situation under the influence of complex news. At the 4-hour level, 2520 remains a key resistance level. Although the K-line's focus has slightly moved up, the trading volume from both bulls and bears has not significantly expanded. In terms of intraday operations, it is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities at the pressure level of 2490 - 2520, while the support level can be referred to in the 2460 - 2430 region.
(3) Dynamics of the Altcoin Market
Recently, there has been a noticeable inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs, which has somewhat boosted liquidity in the altcoin market, with staking and L2 expansion sectors performing particularly well. However, market caution still dominates, leading to a lack of sustainability in the rise of altcoins. Therefore, for spot altcoin investments, a wait-and-see attitude is recommended. Investors holding early low-priced positions may continue to hold, while entering at high prices is not advised at this stage.
The cryptocurrency market is extremely risky, with significant price fluctuations. The above analysis is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice, but is for reference and exchange among market participants.