Bitcoin market cap keeps climbing but MVRV Z-Score stays low suggesting early cycle strength continues.
Realized cap growth supports the rally while low Z-Score hints the market has not overheated yet.
Bitcoin shows strong price movement without entering the red zone which marked past cycle peaks clearly.
Bitcoin’s market price has been rising steadily, yet the MVRV Z-score remains historically low, according to a recent chart shared on June 30, 2025. This combination indicates that Bitcoin may still be undervalued and has significant room to grow in the current cycle. Traders and analysts are now closely watching this metric for signs of potential price movement as the asset continues to approach new highs.
Source: X
The MVRV Z-score compares Bitcoin’s market cap with its realized cap, revealing whether the coin is overvalued or undervalued relative to historical behavior. When the Z-score enters the upper red zone, it has traditionally indicated overbought conditions and market tops. At present, the Z-score remains below the midpoint range, signaling potential upside for Bitcoin.
A sentiment shared by the crypto community reflects this interpretation. Many market observers believe that while price action is heating up, it is not yet driven by retail euphoria. This aligns with the historical utility of the MVRV Z-score, which has helped signal both major tops and bottoms in previous Bitcoin market cycles.
MVRV Z-Score Indicates Room for Expansion
The Z-score on the Bitcoin chart currently ranges between 1.5 and 2.0, well below the peak zones near 7 to 9 seen in prior cycles. These top readings previously marked cycle highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021. During those periods, the MVRV Z-score surged into the red overvaluation zone, suggesting heated market conditions.
By contrast, the current reading suggests that Bitcoin is still operating in a relatively cool phase. With market cap continuing to grow, but realized cap not inflating at the same rate, the indicator points toward sustainable price action. This reflects low investor profit-taking and reduced speculative pressure, often viewed as early-stage bull market behavior.
The chart also shows the price line climbing without any corresponding spike in the MVRV Z-score. This gap implies that price movement is not yet overextended, which historically has offered more room for rallies. Bitcoin’s previous cycle tops occurred only after a strong MVRV surge, which has not yet appeared in this cycle.
Community Reaction Highlights Cycle Expectations
Crypto community members reacted with cautious optimism. Some noted that bullish sentiment is increasing, yet metrics still signal early-phase growth. One comment pointed out that prices are rising steadily without the usual retail-driven spikes seen near cycle peaks.
This observation aligns with the idea that Bitcoin is currently not in a mania phase. Others highlighted that the market could still deliver substantial upside before reaching exhaustion. The absence of strong overbought readings has reassured many long-term holders and new entrants alike.
Additional users referred to the current Z-score range as the “calm before the storm.” Historically, such periods have preceded large bullish moves when supported by rising fundamentals and network activity. This has led analysts to watch the metric closely for any signs of divergence or sudden spikes.
Price Rises, but Valuation Remains Under Historical Peaks
The chart shows Bitcoin’s market cap reaching all-time highs while the Z-score lags behind. This divergence marks a unique phase in the market where valuation lags behind price, often seen during early or mid-cycle stages. Unlike 2021 or 2017, the lack of extreme MVRV readings suggests that profit booking remains muted.
Realized cap growth, as shown in blue, continues to climb steadily. This supports a healthy market foundation, with more coins being moved at higher prices without speculative extremes. If MVRV eventually follows price upward, it could reflect broader confidence and increased activity from market participants.
The current setup prompts one key question: How long can Bitcoin maintain this upward momentum before the MVRV Z-score catches up?
