Bitcoin is witnessing a rapid increase in leverage trading, with both Taker Buy/Sell Ratios and Open Interest (Open Contract Volume) increasing sharply. However, in the context of volatile macroeconomic factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and other risk factors, the question is whether Bitcoin can continue this upward momentum or will it face a strong liquidity wave similar to April's decline of about 20%? The article below will analyze in detail the market signals, leverage fluctuations, and the impact of upcoming US economic reports on BTC prices, helping investors have a comprehensive view, have a professional background, and make cautious forecasts about the possibility of short-term risks.
Bitcoin's performance in the first half of the year and the impact of macroeconomics
Bitcoin ended the second quarter with a gain of around 30%, despite facing a number of market pressures including a deep correction in April, hawkish rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite a 7% price recovery in recent weeks, spot vs. derivative volume ratios show that speculative money still dominates, with the ratio dropping to 0.05 at the end of May – the lowest level ever recorded ahead of major election events.
This volatility shows that the Bitcoin market is still very sensitive to external factors and has not yet fully stabilized. The data shows that the recovery is uneven and has large fluctuations in the short term, posing a challenge for investors in determining the next trend.
Bitcoin Market Forecast for June: Turbulence from US Economic Factors
Bitcoin started June at around $104,785 and is expected to end the month with a slight gain of nearly 2.89%, slowing down significantly from the 10.99% gain in May. The main reason is believed to be the emergence of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) related to geopolitical conflicts, making investors more cautious.
This week, investors will pay special attention to important US economic reports such as a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and industrial production data. These figures will greatly influence interest rate policy expectations ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, when policymakers consider the possibility of cutting interest rates.
The market is currently pricing in lower interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 7.7% last week. However, the odds of a Fed rate cut remain low due to high inflationary pressures and rising tariff risks. Therefore, next week’s economic data will be a key factor in determining Bitcoin’s direction.
Bitcoin leverage increases sharply and speculative cash flow increases
Bitcoin derivatives market recorded an impressive increase in leverage when the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Deribit reached 12.5, showing the overwhelming dominance of Long traders with the expectation of price increase. Open Interest also rose to $72 billion, up 1.63%, showing that the cash flow from derivatives contracts is increasing.
However, technical indicators remain neutral and market sentiment has not shown signs of overheating or overexcitement, giving investors some confidence in the sustainability of the current trend. However, the ratio of trading volume between the spot and derivatives markets increased slightly to 0.07, indicating that the increase is largely driven by speculative activities rather than strong participation from real demand.
Bitcoin Risks and Prospects of Deep Correction
As July approaches with important economic reports, the pressure from former President Trump’s tariff policies is expected to continue to negatively affect market movements. Derivatives traders continue to pour money into long positions, creating a similar scenario to April – the time before Bitcoin’s correction of over 20%.
If economic data falls short of expectations and leverage remains high, the risk of a sharp correction is entirely possible. Investors should closely monitor key economic indicators and consider appropriate risk management in the context of the cryptocurrency market remaining volatile under the influence of external factors.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/3-events-affecting-bitcoin-this-week/
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