1. Recent core advantages for SOL: Regulatory breakthroughs and ecological expansion
1. Key breakthrough for the U.S. staking ETFs
On June 28, the SEC responded to REX Shares' SOL staking ETF (code SSK) with 'no further comments,' which the market interprets as a substantive approval precursor. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that this response indicates the product 'can now be launched,' with Polymarket predicting a 92% probability of approval within the year. This ETF will track SOL's price while capturing on-chain staking yields, becoming the first compliant product combining dual revenue.
2. Canada is the first to approve spot ETFs + staking functions
The Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) approved the issuance of Solana spot ETFs by institutions such as Purpose and Evolve in mid-June, and opened up staking reward functions. This significantly lowers the participation threshold for retail investors, driving SOL to surge nearly 20% in a week, leading mainstream tokens.
3. Regulatory environment shifts to 'innovation-friendly'
Clear signals of policy easing: The SEC admitted for the first time in a May statement that 'pure protocol staking does not constitute securities,' combined with the Trump administration's push for financial innovation, clearing obstacles for staking ETFs. The market expects ETH staking ETFs to follow closely once SOL is approved.
4. On-chain data verification agency layout
ETF expectations triggered massive whale movements: Over $1.3 billion in SOL transferred within 24 hours, with futures positions reaching new highs, pushing SOL prices above $150. On-chain analysis shows that institutions are accelerating their accumulation of assets through OTC channels.
2. Current status and trends of the SOL staking ecosystem: Expansion and concerns under high yields
1. Staking scale and yield advantages
- Participation surges: 68% of SOL across the network is staked (approximately 363 million), significantly higher than Ethereum's staking rate.
- Yield leadership: Comprehensive annualized yields reach 5%-13%, significantly higher than the holding yields of BTC/ETH spot ETFs.
2. Centralization risks trigger controversy
The top 10 validation nodes control over 35% of staked SOL, with the top 20 approaching 50%. The lack of a penalty mechanism similar to Ethereum (Slashing) may amplify governance imbalances. The Solana Foundation has launched the 'Superminority' program to support small nodes, but its effectiveness is yet to be observed.
3. Infrastructure optimization promotes popularity
Coinbase and Morpho Labs have partnered to launch a gas-free SOL staking service, allowing users to earn rewards directly through brokerage accounts without managing private keys. This model significantly lowers the participation threshold in DeFi, stimulating the entry of small and medium investors.
3. Prospects and potential impacts of the SOL staking ETF: A trillion-dollar capital gateway will open
1. Probability of approval and time window
- Short-term catalysts: REX Shares has previewed that the product 'will be launched soon,' and if it lists in July, it will become the first staking yield entry through traditional brokerage channels.
- Comparative advantages: The annualized yield of the SOL staking ETF is expected to reach 6%-8%, significantly higher than the zero yield of Bitcoin ETFs and the 3%-5% of Ethereum ETFs, making it more attractive for allocated funds.
2. Capital scale forecast
Referring to the $30 billion capital inflow after the Bitcoin ETF listing, if the SOL ETF is approved, it may attract $3-5 billion in incremental funds initially. The inflow data from the Canadian products will become a key indicator.
3. Long-term narrative upgrade
If staking ETFs become mainstream, they will restructure the valuation model of POS tokens:
- Yield attributes securitization: Traditional financial markets recognize 'staking income' as a compliant source of revenue for the first time;
- Ecological feedback effect: ETF managers need to continuously increase their SOL holdings for staking, forming a positive cycle of 'buying → staking → deflation.'
> Risk warning: The final approval from the SEC remains uncertain, and SOL's short-term gains have partially overextended expectations. If the ETF falls short of expectations, high staking concentration could exacerbate selling pressure.
Conclusion: Staking ETF — The 'institutionalization turning point' for the SOL ecosystem
The recent advantages of SOL essentially reflect the dual resonance of 'regulatory breakthroughs + revenue revolution': staking has upgraded from a technical operation to a financial product that can be packaged and listed, allowing traditional funds to share the growth dividends of POS networks through compliant channels for the first time. If the U.S. staking ETF materializes as expected, SOL is likely to replicate Bitcoin ETF's capital attraction effect, but one must be cautious of short-term high volatility and long-term governance risks associated with node centralization. The next battleground will be the sustainability of staking yields and the balance of decentralized practices.
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