The cryptocurrency SUI is standing at a critical crossroads. Despite gaining 1.8% today and trading at $2.83, analysts warn that an upcoming unlock of tokens worth over $123 million could trigger a sharp decline. At the same time, a rare and ominous inverse cup and handle pattern has formed on the chart, historically signaling deep sell-offs.
🔹 Technical Indicators Flash Bearish Warnings
The daily SUI chart has formed an inverse cup and handle pattern, a bearish formation suggesting a potential trend reversal. The recent upward movement forming the “handle” may soon collapse if bullish momentum weakens.
If the price breaks below the key support level of $2.66, a 38% drop could follow—matching the depth of the pattern. This would likely push SUI below the psychological $2 threshold, possibly down to $1.651, the lowest point of 2025 so far.
To make matters worse, SUI recently triggered a death cross—a bearish signal where short-term averages fall below long-term ones. This aligns with the weak uptrend forming the handle, suggesting bulls may soon lose control.
Meanwhile, the Money Flow Index (MFI) failed once again to break above the neutral 50 level, indicating weak buying pressure. All signs point to a growing bearish narrative, despite bullish sentiment across the crypto space, including bold predictions like Robert Kiyosaki’s $1 million BTC forecast.
💥 The Real Risk: $123M in Upcoming Token Unlocks
Beyond the technical warning signs, a major fundamental risk also looms: the imminent release of more than 44 million SUI tokens—worth over $123 million at current prices.
Breakdown of the unlocked tokens:
🔹 $35M goes to the community reserve – unlikely to hit the market.
🔹 $5.81M to Mysten Labs treasury – low risk of sell-off.
🔹 $54M for Series B funding – expected to remain idle.
❗ But the real danger lies in the 9.98 million SUI tokens (worth $28 million) that will go to early contributors. If these tokens are transferred to exchanges, it could spark a wave of selling and crash the price.
Such a sell-off could erase recent optimism sparked by SUI’s addition to Grayscale’s crypto portfolio in Q3.
🧭 Summary
This week, SUI faces significant volatility. A combination of bearish technical formations and a massive token unlock raises the probability of a drop below $2. If bulls fail to hold support levels, the price could plunge to $1.65 in the coming days.
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