【$btc】2025.6.30

Oh, it's a door again, first how to go down and then how to come up, and now how to come up and how to go down. Does this mean the market has peaked, and there's nothing left to play with? Is there still room to rise?

First of all, last night I gave two reminders. One, the upper side is both a target and a pressure point, in the range of 【108900-109600】. This means that the closer we get to this position, the more we should guard against potential adjustments in the market, after all, this wave has been pulled for a week, and the position is relatively high. Are you still hesitating about whether it will explode in growth? Some even say that a main upward wave is coming; isn’t that nonsense?

Second, we can only look higher if we stabilize at 108100. So this wave of drawing a door directly reverses the upward trend. Don’t even mention 108100; can we stop the decline and get an opportunity for a rebound layout for short positions? It’s hard to say right now. Basically, in this wave, if we don’t say a crash, and we don’t say a deep drop, at least adjusting to around 106700 is basically not a problem. Further down is the effective support range we talked about before, 【105300-106000】.

Interestingly, there are now people indulging in psychological fantasies, wondering if it is possible to pull back again? And then rise again. From experience, this possibility exists, but it is very small. If there is this possibility, what must the price do? First, starting from this moment, the price must rebound back to 180000 and stabilize here, then the possibility rises to 30%. After that, it must continue to break through 108300, then the possibility can rise to 70%. At this point, there may be a chance for one last surge, but it’s not about a skyrocketing or a main upward wave. It’s just about giving opportunities to break even for long positions and providing opportunities for high-level layouts for short positions. Conversely, if from this moment on it drops instead of rises, directly breaking below 107500, goodbye, basically it’s over.