Written by: Kosta Gushterov, Coindoo
Translated by: Jessica, Techub News
Bitcoin research expert Axel Adler Jr pointed out that Bitcoin is currently showing signs of entering a stable consolidation phase, and the conditions for achieving historical new highs are maturing. His analysis indicates that the current bull market cycle, which started in November 2022, has a solid foundation.
Key cycle characteristics
Adler emphasized that there have only been two significant pullbacks of over 30% in this cycle—occurring in August 2024 and April 2025. Despite experiencing deep pullbacks, Bitcoin quickly regained its ground and continued to reach new highs, with moderate pullbacks of 10-20% serving as classic shakeout patterns to maintain the long-term upward trend.
Narrow pullback with strong support at $96,000
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating in the range of $100,000 to $108,000, with the maximum recent pullback only at 4.7%. Adler specifically points out that even when measured by the weekly simple moving average (SMA), the current decline is only 7%, indicating that the market is in a healthy consolidation rather than a trend reversal.
"Each pullback has gradually narrowed, verifying the market's increasing maturity," Adler stated. He added that if there are no major negative developments, the key support level of $96,000 will help propel prices to new highs.
Exchange traffic reveals supply tightening
Adler also observed significant changes in the capital flow of centralized exchanges (CEX): the daily average turnover of BTC (inflows + outflows) has dropped to 40,000 coins, hitting a new ten-year low. This clearly indicates a shift of investors towards long-term holding, while the reduction in market circulation sets the stage for liquidity-driven price surges.
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The weekly net outflow remains at -4,300 coins, continuing the trend of decreasing exchange inventory. The 30-day moving average of inflows/outflows reflects the last level seen at the beginning of the bull market at the end of 2023, corroborating that even with short-term price consolidation, market demand remains strong.
Market outlook: New highs are in sight
Based on the narrowing pullback, tightening exchange supply, and solid structural support, Adler concludes that as long as the momentum continues and there are no macro shocks, Bitcoin is about to embark on a new round of rising, with historical highs potentially just around the corner.
