Recently, Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating back and forth. Over the weekend, it tried to surge but peaked around $108400 before dropping back down. Although it attempted to rise again today, it's clear that the bulls are struggling. Currently, I personally believe that this rapid rise has basically peaked. I previously mentioned that there wouldn't be a rapid crash and that it would continue to fluctuate, but I estimate that this week will see the end of this fluctuation, starting a new round of corrections; it just remains to be seen how strong this correction will be.
In terms of the time cycle, a low point occurred at the end of June, and in another half month, it will be mid-July. Even if Bitcoin hasn't adjusted by then, we can consider some short-term operations; we can't just hold on to mid-term bottom placements, short-term profits can be nice as well. By the end of July, market funds should start to become active again, making it easier to position ourselves.
Ethereum hasn't shown any improvement either, it has been fluctuating over the weekend with no signs of a catch-up rally. Today it attempted to break through $2520 again but still couldn't hold. So this wave of catch-up seems to be over, don't expect it to surge too high. For us, the best strategy now is to patiently wait.
Looking specifically at Bitcoin's movements, this is the third time it has encountered the daily downtrend line. Experience tells us that each time it reaches this position, it often starts to decline quickly. Today it peaked around $108800, but from the daily perspective, it's very difficult to hold the $108000 position. However, today's pullback shouldn't be too severe, so we can first focus on the support around $106500. If this position is broken, it may fall to the $103000-$104000 range. This week should see the end of the current high-level fluctuations.
Ethereum tested the resistance level of $2520 again today, but unfortunately could not break through. Some may ask, if Bitcoin continues to fluctuate, will Ethereum catch up? From the daily chart, even if it does catch up, the target range would probably be around $2560-$2650. However, it's still too early to say this; let's first see if $2520 can hold. In the short term, $2400 is a small support level, having bounced back multiple times at this position. If $2520 cannot hold today, the first support level is in the $2400-$2450 range. If it even breaks below $2400, similar to Bitcoin breaking below $106000, it may directly drop to the $2200-$2300 range.
We are about to enter the third quarter, which is likely to be a turning point for the crypto market. Firstly, the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September, and secondly, the previously discussed altcoin ETFs may gradually be approved, including those for Solana, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Dogecoin, and Ethereum's staking ETF. If all these positive news can be successfully implemented, the market can truly break free from its current predicament.
Looking back at the first half of the year, apart from Bitcoin which had some profit effect, other cryptocurrencies were basically stagnant. For example, Binance's alpha airdrop surged to the top in trading volume but plummeted 80% by May. This indicates that the current market funds have little interest in altcoins. Moreover, with the recent good performance of crypto-related US stocks, funds have been attracted there, making this period in the crypto market quite difficult.
However, it should be noted that after the market encounters unavoidable macro-negative impacts, the subsequent return rates often exceed 30%. So before the real turning point arrives, what we need to do is survive in this market, staying calm and patient. The current situation feels like it's bottoming out; although the process is torturous, it is often darkest before dawn, which is when opportunities are greatest. The key is to control our positions well, keep enough ammunition, and be ready to seize real opportunities when they arise.
That's all for today's content, see you next time!