The volatility of BTC remains low, so we continue to observe the 1-hour channel. We can see that the current price continues to be supported multiple times at the middle track and attempts to break through effectively upwards;
The current channel is expected to gradually rise in the evening, so the smaller time frame market continues to maintain a bullish outlook;
It is important to note that the spot premium is gradually decreasing, which indicates that futures bulls are beginning to take over the baton and are trying to push the price forward...
To put it simply, if a normal bullish trend has three main upward waves, the first wave is usually brought about by the spot buying army, while the second wave is driven by both the spot and futures markets working in sync...
The problem often arises in the third wave. When the third wave occurs, the demand in the spot market is usually depleted, and the market will show signs of fatigue and boredom. At this point, the futures market will forcefully push the price upward to eat away at the liquidity of the high-position shorts, disregarding the supply from the spot market...
The end result is that the price continues to rise, but the spot premium keeps decreasing. Ultimately, after clearing the short liquidity, both the futures and spot markets are left with only floating supply, as the demand has been fully released...
At this point, the price will begin to pull back or enter a bearish trend...
Therefore, the current situation of price oscillation upwards, with premiums gradually declining, is a warning. In the future, as the price continues to rise, if the premium turns negative, it will be nearly at its peak...
In the meantime, continue to follow the improving sentiment in the futures market, set structural stop losses, and go long in the direction of the trend...
Structural stop loss: Find the nearest local high and low points on the chart. When going long, place the stop loss below the previous local low.
Currently, the stop loss for long positions should be below the middle track of the 1-hour channel.
As for taking profits, we need to analyze through the distribution of futures liquidity...