Bitcoin Analysis (#BTC ) using the Wyckoff method - June 29, 2025

1. Current Phase in the Wyckoff Scheme

- Location:* Phase D (Automatic Rally) of the accumulation scheme, after completing:

- Phase A: Initial drop to $62,800 (selling climax) in February 2025.

- Phase B: Consolidation between $78,000-$109,356 (March-April).

- Phase C ("Spring"): False drop to $74,441 on April 6, followed by recovery.

- Last movement: Broke resistance at $106,400 (AR level), reaching $112,000 on May 22, but could not hold.

2. Current Price and Key Levels

- Price today: ~$107,678.

- Critical support: $103,600-$105,000 (last LPS).

- Resistance: $108,000-$112,000 (rejected AR zone).

3. Projection according to Wyckoff

- Target in Phase E ("Markup"):

- First target: $125,000 (+17% from $106,900).

- Second target: $144,000-$175,000 (aligned with historical rallies of 34-63%).

- Catalysts: Growing global liquidity and possible Fed rate cuts.

4. Confirmation/Invalidation Signals

- Bullish confirmation: Weekly close >$112,000 with high volume.

- Bearish risk: Rejection at $108,000 and drop below $103,600 (return to Phase C).

5. Additional Context

- Technical indicators:

- Neutral RSI (~58), positive MACD.

- 50-week moving average as dynamic support.

- Macro factors: Institutional accumulation and geopolitical tensions.

BTC is in the final stage of Wyckoff accumulation. A breakout above $112,000 could trigger a rally towards $125K+, while a rejection would prolong consolidation. Monitor volume and macro news.

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Note: This is not financial advice. The crypto market is volatile — manage your risk.