My view of the market remains unchanged: volatile decline, bearish outlook.
In the past half month, I opened positions twice: once around June 15 for a wave of shorting clones, and once around June 25 for another wave of shorting clones, with a monthly return rate of 187%. During the rest of the time, I just didn’t monitor the market and did what I needed to do.
After each trade, I roughly check the market every morning and evening. When it gets close to key levels and seems to stop falling, I take profits. Actually, if I were more diligent, I could have taken some rebound longs; on June 23, the market had a clear rebound starting point, but I was indeed lazy and didn't want to trade against the trend. After opening positions, I didn't dare to hold them for long and needed to constantly monitor the market, which was too exhausting.
My personal trading system is all about simplifying complexity. I usually open positions about 2-5 times a month, which is the most comfortable trading style for me at present. To summarize my trading system for sharing: I personally like to look at $BTC for making clones, and $BTC is a different trading method; I will only discuss the clones here.
After the appearance of a bullish trend, patiently wait for a retracement. Along the right side of the 4-hour to daily cycle, catch the longs in the second wave, which is the most stable and fiercest; trade confidently, and you can hold your positions. The third wave should consider the overall market sentiment and whether the coin you are going long on is strong enough. To be safe, you can restrain greed and take profits early. After the third wave, there will still be a rebound long, which can also be understood as a volatile adjustment period. In the past, I wanted to trade in all market conditions, but at this stage, I basically don’t trade and just take a break. You can review the bullish markets of May and last November, using the 4-hour to daily tail cycle to catch the longs in the second and third waves, which in a month would also just have 2 good opening points. To reiterate, after the bullish trend ends, it enters a volatile adjustment period; here, I choose to step back and take a break, not to look for gold in the garbage pile. After leaving the market for a while, it also helps to see the trend more clearly upon returning.
After the period of volatile adjustment, it is time to patiently wait for the formation of a confirmed bearish trend. The next steps for a bearish trend are similar; those with advanced skills can directly catch the decline of a wave, while those who are hesitant can play it safe and wait for the second wave of decline. This logic is similar to catching the second wave of a bullish trend. The cycle is also the same: 4 hours to daily. It is also best to restrain a bit during the third wave of decline. When the bearish trend is nearing its end, it returns to disordered volatility, with various short squeezes, false rallies, and narrow fluctuations—essentially chaotic, and thus we enter a garbage time. Step back and take a break, do not participate.
The market goes in cycles; patiently wait until a bullish market appears again.
You can review the bearish market from January to March this year; a good opening point for the 4-hour to daily cycle is about 2 times a month. You can also review the wide fluctuations from April to August last year; if you only take a single direction, there might actually just be one trend opening point a month.
In an upward cycle, you can take short positions during retracements; in a downward trend, you can take long positions during rebounds. So, if you trade both long and short, then in a 4-hour to daily trading cycle, you might only have 4-6 opening points in a month at most. I try to avoid double-direction trading because trading against the trend carries significant risks, and it's hard to grasp profit-taking points. Moreover, sometimes when the bullish market is very fierce, like in February and November last year where some strong clones were in a straight rally, there were many short retracements that tempted shorts, leading to infinite squeezes on bears. Once you get emotional and keep trading against the trend, you're basically doomed. So, I try my best to trade with the trend, making me feel more secure when holding positions.
I don't know how others view trading cycles. In the past, I often traded at 15-minute or 1-hour levels for high-multiple day trading, but high-intensity monitoring is too exhausting, and the win rate is also unstable, with emotions always affected. If you want to engage in trading long-term, this trading system will eventually need to be changed. After getting used to trading at the 4-hour to daily level, my win rate and profit-loss ratio gradually stabilized, leading to the formation of a sustainable trading system.
My current monthly return rate is between 50%-200%, regardless of whether it's a bull or bear market. It’s another matter if I catch a strong lottery coin during a bullish market.
1.5-2 power compounding; time is the best leverage.
