Trump is taking action! Are Powell's days numbered?
According to reports from multiple media outlets, Trump is planning to sideline Powell by selecting a shadow chairman, his successor, to weaken Powell's influence. Therefore, in the future, officials in the Federal Reserve meetings will not only look at Powell's face but also consider the attitude of the next chairman designated by Trump, so the expectation for interest rate cuts is growing!
The US dollar index has plunged, breaking through key support, reaching a new low in three years. If the dollar continues to depreciate, it would be a significant boon for the entire cryptocurrency market and US stocks.
Logically, under the backdrop of the US stock market continuously hitting new highs, the cryptocurrency market should also be soaring.
The two major indices, Nasdaq and S&P 500, have both hit new highs at the start of trading, almost ready to 'fly out of the atmosphere,' while the cryptocurrency market has clearly 'fallen behind,' especially altcoins, which are absent when they rise and fall together when they drop, creating a concerning state of 'falling but not rising.'
This kind of disjointed trend is often not a good sign. Here at Sponge, we remain highly vigilant, not rushing to chase highs, and waiting for the next clear signal to appear.
BTC
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin currently shows a clear 'top divergence' structure - even though the price has reached new highs, the MACD energy bar has not increased synchronously, indicating a weakening momentum. Under these conditions, the probability of BTC successfully breaking through $110,000 is not high. Even if it forces a surge in the short term, it is more likely to form a false breakout of a 'double top' structure. Once the price surges and then falls back, dropping back to the key neckline, it may release a clear short signal, and shorting opportunities may follow.
Main players shorting?
Because if you look at the on-chain data, you'll find that a circle of main players have not only not increased their positions, but have also been shorting. Can you believe that?
(1) The asset management giant abraxas has taken a $500 million short position, covering a range of mainstream coins including BTC, ETH, SOL, SUI, HYPE.
(2) Another major player in the cryptocurrency market, spoof, has chosen to clear out $3 billion in Bitcoin at high points, and currently shows no clear signs of re-entering the market. Based on past operations, he only steps in to buy when Bitcoin drops to around $98,000, and once the price rises above $100,000, he chooses to stand by and no longer chase the highs. This shows that this major player is cautious at high levels and is unlikely to continue increasing positions in the short term.
If you often pay attention to the movements of smart money, you will discover their true profit secret, which is simply four words: buy low, sell high. In the cryptocurrency market, to make money, you must master this iron rule - only by ambushing at low levels and cashing out at high levels can you truly capture profits from the market.
Don't fantasize that any asset will only rise without falling; corrections will come sooner or later. Especially now, the main funds in Bitcoin have clearly exited, not only not increasing positions but even laying out short positions. Since smart money is watching from the sidelines or even reversing, why are you in such a hurry? The real opportunities never come when chasing highs.
Short these coins, and reap huge profits!
In terms of altcoins, recent attention can be focused on projects that are about to face large unlocks, especially those whose unlocking volume exceeds 20% of the current circulating supply, which typically brings significant selling pressure. Personally, I am particularly focused on $TRUMP and $ZRO, which are set to unlock in about twenty days, and I expect to gradually lay out short positions two weeks in advance.
Of course, other coins with a higher unlocking ratio can also be shorted, but it is advised to control leverage to avoid excessive risk. Overall, these 'event-driven short opportunities' have a relatively clear risk-to-reward ratio and are a type of strategy worth focusing on in the current volatile market.
It's just like what we discussed last week (Bitcoin and Ethereum's V-shaped reversal skyrocketed! How to turn things around now? Altcoins and the AI sector are fully recovering, the Bonk family is taking off! $BAOBAO soared 5 times, what's next WIF?) The unlocking of BLAST has been completed, so my short position has also taken profit. I will exit ACX and KOMN in the next few days at lower prices, and these short positions have been communicated in advance. Congratulations to the fans who shorted with me earlier. Next week, we will look for a high point to lay out TRUMP and ZRO short positions again for another profit opportunity. Those who want to follow can join the group with us.
Buy the dip on these surging coins!
PEPE: The leading Ethereum meme coin may experience an explosion in October.
Currently, PEPE is still in a downward channel experiencing fluctuations, but we must pay attention to a core logic - the Ethereum staking ETF is expected to be approved in October. If this comes true, it will not only affect ETH itself but also all Ethereum ecosystem coins that could experience a collective surge.
As the leading meme in the Ethereum ecosystem, PEPE has the strongest emotional leverage and is very likely to become the pioneer of capital speculation, with significant growth potential.
SOL & XRP: The probability of spot ETF approval is as high as 95%, it's a good time to build positions at lower prices.
The spot ETF for Solana and XRP is currently evaluated by mainstream research institutions with a '95% probability of approval,' with the time window locked around mid-October this year. Institutional movements combined with the ETF concept drive indicate that once approved, the coin price is likely to experience explosive growth.
Currently, SOL and XRP have both corrected about 40% from their previous highs, entering a value range for medium to long-term investments. It is recommended to gradually accumulate positions at lower prices, and if the market significantly corrects later, you can boldly increase positions to take advantage of the doubling market in Q4.
If you have been following Sponge recently, you would have made profits by oscillating between high and low in the Bitcoin range of $106,400 - $108,200, shorting unlocking coins like BLAST, TRUMP, ZRO, ZK. You could earn five or even ten times profits; the profit potential in the cryptocurrency market is actually very large - provided you can keep up with the right rhythm and understand what the main players are thinking and doing. I share this data and operational strategies in the community every day, helping you avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities, significantly outperforming most retail investors. Whether it's dollar-cost averaging or going all in, as long as the strategy is right and the timing is accurate, tenfold returns are not far away.