Not long ago, Raoul Pal (the founder of Real Vision) spoke again, expressing his optimism for SUI, suggesting it has a chance to break into the top five by 2025, and he mentioned the title 'Solana killer' more than once.
To be honest, when I first saw this sentence, I was skeptical—after all, SUI had quite a bumpy ride in the first half of this year. In the first quarter, it directly dropped by 44%, and although it rebounded by 17% in the second quarter, it is still far from a 'comeback'.
However, Pal's viewpoint is not entirely unreasonable. He believes that as long as BTC can break through its historical high, SUI may oscillate below $3.5 for a while before breaking out. If it can hold the critical support level of $2.2, there is hope—this is the key watershed he outlined for future trends.
CoinGecko also provided a bolder figure: if SUI can reach Solana's current market value ($77 billion), then SUI's price could potentially rise to $22.9. Doesn't that sound tempting? The increase is almost 8 times the current price.
But that said, reality is very cold.
The ratio of SUI/SOL tells us that SUI is clearly lagging behind. After May, SUI was nearly 26% worse than SOL, and the ratio chart also retraced by 26.7%. It is currently hovering around 0.0158—this is a technical support level. If it can hold, there might be a rebound space of over 50%. But if it breaks down, we may need to wait longer.
DeFi hype cools down
In fact, SUI's ability to 'recover' in the second quarter largely relied on its performance in DeFi.
In April, SUI's DEX monthly trading volume exceeded $11 billion, significantly higher than March, and by May, this figure directly reached a historic high of $14.12 billion. The meme frenzy in the DeFi ecosystem and the overall market warming indeed made its trend temporarily flourish, pushing the price up to $4.2.
However, this kind of market that relies on DeFi hype is hard to sustain. Once it cools down in June, trading demand also declines, and SUI's price subsequently fell back to around $2.2. This is essentially the typical cyclical DeFi effect: hot like a rocket, cold like a freezer.
But Pal remains bullish. He mentioned a key technical formation: SUI's trend is already approaching the apex of a symmetrical triangle—this is a typical structural formation for many coins before breaking out. If the formation holds, the next momentum is likely to be upward.
Final words
#Can SUI really become the 'Solana killer'?
This question, no one can confidently say yes to right now. But it has potential, a narrative, and a certain ecological foundation—that's a fact.
It's just that the crypto market moves too fast; whether it can survive to see the day when dreams are realized is the biggest uncertainty.
If you are also observing SUI, or are struggling with whether to hold it long-term, feel free to leave a message to chat. Together, we can assess whether this tug-of-war between 'potential and reality' is worth participating in.
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