Bitcoin is oscillating at high levels, with a short-term bearish bias. U.S. stocks are currently in a forced liquidation phase, but once it corrects, it may drag the crypto market down.
Short ambush: Resistance near 107,500 has been repeatedly encountered, which can be viewed as a shorting window; the 12-hour level has shown a shrinking 'top' K-line, and neither time nor momentum supports a breakout.
Long ambush: If it retraces to 104,600, then consider a short-term long; a 1-hour close below 106,500 would signal the end of this round of rebound.
Macro warning: On July 9, Trump might reintroduce tariffs, and short-term uncertainties persist; if taxes are indeed raised, market sentiment may be undermined again.
After the tariff boots drop, negative factors will basically clear; September's interest rate cut expectations and stablecoin legislation will follow, so patiently wait for 'blossoms to bloom'.
The new currency market continues to experience 'instant surges and instant crashes', with SAHARA, NEWT, and HOME reaching peaks upon launch, while TUT and BANANAS31 plummeted by more than 50%. Until capital fully recovers, altcoins are unlikely to see significant trends; only a market rally could potentially trigger a rebound. The geopolitical risks in Iran are still ongoing; remember to control your positions to endure until the other side.
The market lacks warmth, and 'artificial monsters' come to seek attention. Will the forced liquidation trend repeat this time?
BSW and ALPHA show markedly different trends after the announcement:
BSW actually rose, with holdings at about half of the circulation, and the fee only slightly at a negative premium (-0.3%), indicating overly strong market expectations, making it more likely for the market makers to reverse and kill the longs;
ALPHA's increase is not significant, with current holdings only accounting for 20% of the circulation. Although it does not yet have the conditions for forced liquidation, if it continues to increase in holding while decreasing in price, it may hide opportunities.
Overall, both positions still have far less holding volume compared to the previous situation with Alpaca, making a forced liquidation premature. Moreover, there is still time until the official delisting, and uncertainties remain. If there is indeed an opportunity for forced liquidation, it usually occurs on the last day. Do you remember the sharp drop the night before Alpaca's delisting? That was the best entry point; don’t get harvested too early.
Alright, after reviewing today's market analysis, let's continue to observe the overall market direction dynamics.
Bitcoin sits steadily on the fishing platform, while altcoins cry and take a beating—crypto observations after the war ends.
President Trump keeps changing his stance, scaring ETH and various altcoins into a frenzy, yet BTC remains unmoved, even returning above 108,000 yesterday during the day.
If the war can settle down, the market will be free of a bomb that could explode at any moment, and the next target for Bitcoin naturally points to 110,000. The record has already been broken once, and the resistance to returning to 110,000 is much lighter than two weeks ago; optimistically, it could be seen this weekend, conservatively by next week.
The integration baton will be passed to the 'tariff war'.
July 9 is the final negotiation day for the U.S. external benchmark tariffs, with less than two weeks remaining. The uncertainties regarding tariffs are still large, and any slight change could trigger short-term volatility.
Altcoins are quiet, but the outside world is 'soaring'.
In the altcoin world, there is widespread wailing, but as long as it carries the 'crypto concept' label, the stock market is a chaotic scene:
Guotai Junan International's market value surged due to virtual asset licenses, leading Hong Kong brokerage stocks to hit the upper limits in succession;
A-shares like Xinan Century and Kechuang Information are similarly leveraging this momentum;
U.S. stocks Circle made a slight correction, while other 'coin stocks' also surged together.
A friend joked: 'Top project parties ultimately dream of ringing the bell at Nasdaq.' Previously, issuing coins was a last resort, but now with favorable policies, capital naturally flows to the higher traditional capital markets. Perhaps the real primary market dividends this round aren't on-chain but in the stock market—don't just focus on coins, seek opportunities where the money is plentiful.
Finally, let's talk about my personal trading thoughts.
BTC/ETH dollar-cost averaging or lower multiples: After the war's thunder is cleared, the probability of Bitcoin reaching 110,000 is high. Don't take too heavy a position; if wrong, there's room to maneuver.
Altcoins should be selected carefully: quality Memes or leading public chains can be positioned in small amounts, but don't be soft-hearted about bad projects.
Keep a close eye on the tariff timeline: Black swans are likely to emerge around July 9, so set stop-losses diligently.
Pay attention to crypto concept stocks: Traditional markets are flush with funds and could be the next wealth-building hotbed.
War pauses, tariffs unresolved, capital shifts tracks—this is the current pulse of bulls and bears. The market won't wait for anyone; controlling the rhythm is crucial.
I wish everyone to maintain their mindset amidst the turmoil and not let the market's drama drag their wallets on a roller coaster.
That's all for this article! If you're feeling lost in the crypto world, consider joining me to layout and harvest the market makers!
