Bitcoin's recent price drop is mainly due to profit-taking from whales, not macro concerns.
However, with the tax pause nearing its end, will Bitcoin's stability be challenged by a new wave of macro volatility?
Bitcoin [BTC] has proven its ability to hold the $100,000 mark against significant political adverse factors, which indicates a significant change in market structure. Previously, such geopolitical shocks often led to a sharp decline.
If discussing this resilience, the question arises whether behind Bitcoin's stability is limited supply, strong support, and positive on-chain trends?
Or is the market simply reflecting what has happened in the past and predicting the likelihood of a ceasefire in the near future? This is the important theme as we enter Q3. Because, although BTC remains stable, volatility has not yet been resolved. It is just waiting for the next signal.
Bitcoin reacts to pressure from whales, not macro chaos
Critics may point to Bitcoin's sharp drop to $98,000 on June 22 as a sign that macroeconomic volatility is rising. However, from a broader perspective, the damage appears to be limited.
Compared to the sharp 22% decline in April during the 'Liberation Day' event, the current adjustment with an 11% drop seems more like a health check than a structural collapse.
What dynamics lead to a milder impact? The simple answer; the market does not accept that the conflict will drag on. One clear sign is the oil price. Instead of rising, oil prices have dropped nearly 15% to $60 a barrel, even as Iran conducts attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar.
In fact, on-chain metrics have confirmed that the volatility is due to profit-taking, not panic. As BTC surpasses the $100,000 threshold and approaches a new all-time high, whales have capitalized on this upward momentum to sell.
On June 16, whales holding more than 1,000 BTC injected 20,000 BTC into the market, leading to a drop below the $105,000 support level with a 2.71% decrease in the following trading period.
However, with stable market sentiment and volatility kept low, Bitcoin's decline remains at 11%, reinforcing the view that this is a more controlled adjustment rather than a sign of structural weakness.
Countdown to tax-induced volatility
Let's not forget that President Trump's 90-day tax pause will end on July 9, and unless new trade agreements are established, the market will face a significant adjustment in global trade flows.
This will be very important: corresponding taxes will come back, the European Union faces import taxes of up to 50%, while China maintains a 30% rate, and the global base tax of 10% will remain unchanged.
Notably, stock markets have shown optimistic signs, with the S&P 500 rising more than 1,200 points since April 9. During the same period, Bitcoin has increased by 37%, pushing the average price to about $105,000.
But as the tax deadline approaches, the level of risk increases. If trade tensions return and cause inflation growth in Q3 and Q4, the Federal Reserve's direction towards interest rate cuts may face challenges.
This could cause whales, who have remained calm throughout the FUD news from the war, to now have a more reactive position. As volatility is likely to return strongly, Bitcoin's $100,000 level may face its biggest challenge yet, with strong macro pressure behind it.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-vuot-fud-thue-quan-tac-dong-lon/
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