From the daily chart level of Bitcoin, there have been two significant bullish trap patterns during the first major wave, and in March of this year, the second major wave showed three signs of bullish traps. Currently, Bitcoin is in a high-level consolidation, and from a technical analysis perspective, this is already the fifth bullish trap signal. If the price subsequently breaks down, the market is likely to face a rapid and severe deep adjustment, and once the bearish trend is established, it may be difficult to reverse in the short term.

Of course, if the price holds above the key support level and continues to rise, it cannot be ruled out that it may challenge historical highs, forming an ultimate bullish trap at $120,000. However, based on a comprehensive analysis of the current market sentiment, capital flow, and macroeconomic environment, I personally believe that there is no need for Bitcoin to have a false breakout, and the probability of an upward breakout is relatively low.

I originally held a full position in short orders, but for risk control considerations, I have closed half of my position. I will closely monitor tonight's price movement, and if it fails to break through the key resistance level, I plan to promptly re-establish my short position to capitalize on potential downward trends.